数字金融会影响银行系统性风险吗? ——基于中国上市银行的证据
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F830.5

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教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“跨境资本流动对商业银行信贷风险的影响机理及政策研究”(20YJA790014)。


Does Digital Finance Affect Banking Systemic Risk? ——Evidence from Chinese Listed Banks
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    摘要:

    选取2011—2020年中国16家上市银行年度数据对数字金融对银行系统性风险的影响及其作用机制进行实证分析。研究表明:(1)数字金融对银行系统性风险具有促进作用。相对于国有银行部门,数字金融对非国有银行部门系统性风险的促进力度更大。(2)数字金融通过金融脱媒渠道促进了银行系统性风险,并通过银行业竞合、风险承担及贷款集聚渠道抑制了银行系统性风险。金融脱媒渠道的促进作用对冲了银行业竞合、风险承担及贷款集聚渠道的抑制作用,由此促进了银行系统性风险。“数字金融—金融脱媒/银行业竞合/风险承担/贷款集聚—银行系统性风险”的传导渠道均有效。(3)城镇化水平提高会加剧数字金融对银行系统性风险的促进作用,内需市场规模提升会减弱数字金融对银行系统性风险的促进作用。(4)数字金融在保险与投资功能渠道促进了银行系统性风险,在货币基金功能渠道抑制了银行系统性风险,但在支付、信贷、信用等功能渠道对银行系统性风险的影响无效。研究成果将为规范中国数字金融发展及防范银行业系统性风险提供理论指导与决策参考。

    Abstract:

    This paper selects the annual data of 16 Chinese listed banks from 2011 to 2020 to conduct an empirical analysis on the impact of digital finance on the banking systemic risk and its mechanism. The research shows that: (1)Digital finance has a promoting effect on banking systemic risks. Compared with the state-owned banking sector, digital finance promotes the systemic risk of the non-state-owned banking sector more vigorously. (2)Financial disintermediation, banking coexistence, bank risk-taking and loan agglomeration play multiple intermediary roles in the relationship between digital finance and banking systemic risk. Digital finance influences banking systemic risk by influencing financial disintermediation, banking coexistence, bank risk-taking and loan agglomeration. The transmission channels of “digital finance-financial disintermediation/banking coexistence/risk-taking/loan agglomeration-banking systemic risk” are all effective. (3) The improvement of urbanization level will intensify the promotion effect of digital finance on banking systemic risk, while the increase of domestic demand market size will weaken the promotion effect of digital finance on banking systemic risk. (4) Digital finance promotes banking systemic risk in the insurance and investment functional channels, and restrains banking systemic risk in the monetary fund functional channels, but has no effect on banking systemic risk in the payment, loan and credit functional channels.

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顾海峰,卞雨晨.数字金融会影响银行系统性风险吗? ——基于中国上市银行的证据[J].中国软科学,2022,(2):32-43

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-22
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