中部崛起战略与区域产业结构转型升级 ——来自中国城市面板数据的经验证据
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F061.5

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中国社会科学院学科建设“登峰战略”重点学科区域经济学资助项目。


Rising Strategy of Central China and the Transformation and Upgrading of Regional Industrial Structure ——Empirical Evidence from Urban Panel Data in China
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    摘要:

    利用中国288个地级市2000—2016年面板数据,采用DID和PSM-DID模型衡量了RSCC对TUIS净效应。研究表明:(1)RSCC未能带动区域产业结构高级化和合理化,近而未能推动TUIS。(2)RSCC实施初期存在时滞,随后对产业结构高级化呈现先负后正影响,对产业结构合理化抑制作用逐渐拉大。(3)RSCC存在人力资本挤出、储蓄抑制加之未充分发挥政府支出和固定资产投资作用,尽管对区域发展水平、外商直接投资影响为正,但因体制机制等未能带动TUIS。(4)RSCC在2012年前显著带动产业结构合理化,2012年后显著提升产业结构高级化;RSCC实施中“两个比照”样本对TUIS影响优于整体,并未带来与非比照区域显著差别;RSCC对等级高城市的TUIS影响不显著,对一般等级城市产业结构合理化有抑制作用。由此,应更好配置禀赋资源,强化产业内生增长能力,带动中部TUIS。

    Abstract:

    Based on the panel data of 288 prefecture level cities in China from 2000 to 2016, this paper uses DID and PSM-DID models to measure the net effect of RSCC on TUIS. The results show that: (1) RSCC failed to promote industrial structure rationalization (ISR) and industrial structure advancement (ISA), and failed to promote TUIS. (2) There is a time lag in the initial stage of RSCC implementation, and then RSCC has a negative and then positive impact on ISA and the inhibitory effect on ISR is gradually increased. (3) There are human capital crowding out, savings restraining, government expenditure and fixed assets investment not fully playing a role in RSCC. Although RSCC has a positive impact on regional development level and foreign direct investment, due to institutional mechanisms, TUIS has not been promoted. (4) RSCC significantly promoted ISR before 2012, and significantly promoted ISA after 2012.The effect of “two comparison” samples on TUIS is better than that of the whole, and there is no significant difference between the two groups. RSCC has no significant effect on TUIS of high-grade cities, but has a restraining effect on ISR of general grade cities. Therefore, we should better allocate the natural endowments and resources, strengthen the endogenous growth ability of the industry, and promote TUIS in the central region.

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陈凡,周民良.中部崛起战略与区域产业结构转型升级 ——来自中国城市面板数据的经验证据[J].中国软科学,2022,(2):105-115

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-22
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