我国碳排放权市场交易价格波动特征研究 ——对5个碳交易试点的实证分析
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F201;TV882.1

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教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(19YJC790128)。


Research on Price Fluctuation Characteristics of Carbon Emission Rights Trading Market in China Based on Empirical Analysis of Five Carbon Trading Pilots
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    摘要:

    碳排放权交易制度是实现中国碳中和目标的重要途径之一。以中国5个碳排放权交易试点为对象,研究中国碳排放权交易价格的波动性及其影响因素,利用GARCH-BP组合模型分析了碳交易价格收益率的波动特征。结果显示:5个碳交易试点均存在波动聚集性的特征,且波动的持续性较长。5个碳交易试点中只有广东碳交易市场的收益率与风险存在正相关关系,其他4个试点均不存在风险溢价。广东碳交易价格收益率波动还存在非对称性,其他4个试点的非对称性均不显著。从波动特征看,广东碳交易市场发展程度最高。为促进碳达峰和碳中和尽早实现,需要进一步健全全国碳交易市场的政策调控体系、科学制定碳配额分配机制、完善碳交易市场价格调控机制、创新发展碳金融衍生产品等。

    Abstract:

    The carbon emission trading system is one of the important ways to achieve carbon peak and neutrality goal in China. This paper takes China’s five carbon emissions trading pilots as the object to study the volatility of China’s carbon emissions trading prices. Using the established GARCH-BP composite model, the volatility characteristics of the carbon trading price return rate were analyzed. The results show that the five carbon trading pilots all have the characteristics of volatility clustering, and the volatility is relatively long. Among the five carbon trading pilots, only the yield of the Guangdong carbon trading market is positively correlated with risk, and there is no risk premium in the other four pilots. There is still asymmetry in the volatility of Guangdong carbon trading price yield. The asymmetry of the other four pilots is not significant. In terms of volatility characteristics, the Guangdong carbon trading market has the highest degree of development. To promote carbon peaking and carbon neutrality as early as possible, it is necessary to further improve the policy regulation system of the national carbon trading market, and scientifically formulate carbon quota allocation mechanisms, and improve the price control mechanism in the carbon trading market, and innovate and develop carbon financial derivative products.

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公维凤,王丽萍,王传会,高仲芳.我国碳排放权市场交易价格波动特征研究 ——对5个碳交易试点的实证分析[J].中国软科学,2022,(4):149-160

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-21
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