数字金融发展、农村普惠金融与农业经济增长 ——来自中国县域数据的经验证据
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Digital Economy Development, Rural Inclusive Financeand Agricultural Economic Growth ——Empirical Evidence from County Data in China
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    摘要:

    选取2011—2019年中国1301个县级地区的经济数据研究农村金融数字化发展对农业经济增长的影响,采用动态面板PTR模型对农业经济增长的“数字门槛效应”进行识别,主要得出如下结论:第一,农村金融数字化能够显著拉动农业经济增长,这是因为数字化提高了农村地区的金融可得性,进一步的机制分析表明,这种影响主要源于数字覆盖广度,而限于农村地区的固有特征,提升数字化深度和复杂度并不利于拉动农业经济增长;第二,农业经济增长具有明显的“数字金融门槛效应”,具体而言,当数字金融指数超过234.39时,农村金融发展对农业经济增长的影响将由单一的“金融可得性促进增长”转变为“可得性和规模提升协同促进增长”;第三,目前中国绝大多数地区均已跨越“数字金融门槛”,这意味着金融数字化已为中国农业经济发展带来了新契机和新转变。

    Abstract:

    This paper selects 1301 county-level data in China from 2011 to 2019 to study the impact of rural financial digital development on agricultural economic growth, and uses the dynamic panel PTR model to identify the “digital threshold effect” of agricultural economic growth. The main conclusions are as follows: First, the popularization of rural financial digitization can significantly boost agricultural economic growth, mainly because digitization improves financial availability in rural areas. Further mechanism analysis shows that this impact is mainly due to the width of digital coverage. As limited to the inherent characteristics of rural areas, increasing the depth and complexity of digitalization is not conducive to stimulating agricultural economic growth. Secondly, agricultural economic growth has an obvious “digital financial threshold effect”. Specifically, when the digital financial index exceeds 234.39, the impact of financial development on agricultural economic growth will change from a single “financial availability promoting growth” to a “synergy of availability and scale improvement promoting growth”. Finally, most regions in China have now exceeded the “digital financial threshold”. This means that financial digitalization has brought new opportunities and new changes to the development of China’s agricultural economy.

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连俊华.数字金融发展、农村普惠金融与农业经济增长 ——来自中国县域数据的经验证据[J].中国软科学,2022,(5):134-146

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-03
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