“中日韩+传染病防治”合作对区域发展的潜在价值 ——基于GTAP模型的政策模拟分析
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F741.2

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国家社科基金项目“‘中日韩+’模式对亚洲区域经济合作的影响与我国的策略研究”(20BGJ036)。


Potential Value of “China, Japan and South Korea + Infectious Disease Prevention and Control”Cooperation to Regional Development: Policy Simulation Analysis Based on GTAP Model
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    摘要:

    “中日韩+传染病防治”合作项目是“中日韩+X”合作框架下的重要项目,新冠疫情的爆发使该项目的深入推进具有了紧迫性和着力点。本文在论证“中日韩+传染病防治”项目现实可行性的基础上,总结中日韩三国在传染病防治方面达成的共识、意向和采取的措施,并将其划分为贸易合作、生产合作和防控合作三类,然后运用GTAP模型并模拟不同合作方案及其具体措施在影响中日韩三国以及世界其他国家或地区的国内生产总值、社会福利与产业产出方面的潜在价值,根据实证研究结果给出了政策启示。

    Abstract:

    “China, Japan and South Korea + Infectious Disease Prevention and Control” is an important project under the “Trilateral+X” cooperation framework. The outbreak of the COVID-19 has made the further advancement of this project urgent and focused. While demonstrating the practical feasibility of the “China, Japan and South Korea + Infectious disease prevention and Control” project, this paper summarizes the consensus, intention and measures reached by the three countries in the prevention and control of infectious diseases, and divides them into three categories: trade cooperation, production cooperation and prevention and control cooperation. Then, the GTAP model is used to simulate the potential value of different cooperation programs and specific measures in influencing the changes of GDP, social welfare and industrial output of China, Japan and South Korea as well as other countries or regions in the world. Finally, the paper gives some policy implications based on the empirical results.

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杨宏恩,焦永香,陈冉,屈亚会.“中日韩+传染病防治”合作对区域发展的潜在价值 ——基于GTAP模型的政策模拟分析[J].中国软科学,2022,(5):147-158

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-03
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