中国能源转型路径选择的影响因素:理论检验与实证分析
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F407.2;F426

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国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“绿色低碳发展中能源转型的路径匹配选择机制:产业激励的视角”(72103128);上海市“科技创新行动计划”软科学研究领域重点项目;“‘新基建’与‘产业数字化’框架下长三角电力行业‘多站融合’的业务场景匹配策略与可行性评估”(21692109400)。


Influencing Factors of the Pathway Selection for China’s Energy Transition:Theoretical Verification and Empirical Analysis
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    摘要:

    中国能源转型正处于关键阶段,识别转型路径选择的影响因素并测算其作用效果具有重要理论价值和现实意义。基于“能源转型”的新定位,构建能源转型路径选择与轨迹跃迁的理论架构;定义能源转型的路径依赖性、脆弱性和创新性,并进行时空特征分析;建立多元回归模型,对不同区域和发展阶段的主要影响因素进行影响机理分析。实证研究表明:空间维度,中国八大综合经济区能源转型路径选择虽有区域性差异,但均呈现出较为明显的“依赖性增强、脆弱性减小、创新性震荡”特征;时间维度,中国能源转型路径选择呈现出“平稳期依赖性突出、换档期脆弱性明显、加速期创新性增强”的特点,且各阶段的主要影响因素类型存在明显差异;因素维度,影响因素作用过程在不同阶段呈现不同的作用方向,部分因素的影响效果具有连续性、部分具有互斥性、部分具有随机性。

    Abstract:

    China’s energy transition is in the key stage. It is of great theoretical value and practical significance to identify the influencing factors of energy transition pathway selection, and measure their effect. Firstly, the new definition of “energy transition” is clarified and discussed through literature reviews, while the theoretical framework for both pathway selection and trajectory transition of energy transition is constructed. Secondly, the path dependence, vulnerability and creation of energy transition are defined for the spatiotemporal characteristics analysis. Finally, the Multiple Regression Model is established to analyze the effect of factors, and then nine main influencing factors of both eight comprehensive economic regions and three development stages are chosen for the influence mechanism analysis. The empirical research results show that: From the spatial dimension, although there are regional differences in energy transition pathway selection, China’s eight comprehensive economic regions all show obvious characteristics of “increased dependence, reduced vulnerability and fluctuated creation”. From the time dimension, China’s energy transition pathway selection shows clear attributes of “prominent dependence in stationary period, obvious vulnerability in shifting period, and increased creation in acceleration period” with big differences in the main influencing factors of each stage. From the factor dimension, the influencing process of factors presents different effect directions in different stages, and some factors are continuous with respect to the influence effects, some are mutually exclusive, and others are random.

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刘平阔,卢存禹.中国能源转型路径选择的影响因素:理论检验与实证分析[J].中国软科学,2022,(6):51-61

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-03
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