“一带一路”跨国金融对出口贸易网络的影响研究 ——基于指数随机图模型的实证检验
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F831.6

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国家社科基金一般项目“全球金融周期与中国经济波动研究”(20BJY236);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金“‘一带一路’沿线国际金融关系网络对国际贸易网络的影响机理与效应研究”(17YJCZH218)、“‘一带一路’沿线国家人文关系网络对国际贸易网络的影响研究”(16YJCZH124);浙江省高校重大人文社科项目攻关计划“ ‘一带一路’沿线国际金融关系嬗变对国际贸易网络演化的影响机理和效应研究”(2016QN005)。


Effect of Transnational Finance on Export Trade Network across the Belt and Road Initiatives: Empirical Test Based on the Expornal Random Graph Model
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    摘要:

    以“一带一路”沿线61个发起国为样本,在网络分析框架下,描述2001—2019年间,样本国家出口贸易网络、资产组合投资网络、股权与基金投资份额网络和债券投资网络的(加权)平均度、网络密度、平均集聚系数和平均路径长度的大小和变化趋势,揭示4个网络共有的“小世界”特征;进而采用横截面指数随机图模型和时间指数随机图模型,证实资产组合投资网络、股权与投资基金网络和债券投资网络对“一带一路”沿线国家出口贸易网络发展的促进作用,并且发现债券投资网络的作用相对最大。研究还发现,“一带一路”国家自身具有的属性特征,诸如投资自由化和金融自由化发展水平越显著,越易于形成紧密的出口贸易网络;经济规模和人口数量越大的国家在出口贸易网络中表现得更为活跃。基于此,进一步指明了研究结论的政策含义。

    Abstract:

    This study selects 61 countries along with the “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) as a sample. Under the framework of network analysis, we first describes the (weighted) average degree, network density, average agglomeration coefficient and average path length of export trade network, portfolio investment network, equity and fund investment share network and bond investment network of sample countries from 2001 to 2019, and reveals the common “small world” characteristics of the four networks; and then uses the cross-sectional expornalrandom graph model (ERGM) and temporal ERGM to consistently confirmed that the portfolio investment network, equity and investment fund network, and bond investment networks are conducive to the development of the export trade network of countries across the BRI countries during the sample period and it is found that the bond investment network plays the most important role in the development of export network among them;what’s more, the more significant of attribute characteristics of the countries, such as investment liberalization and financial liberalization, the more easy to establish the closer export trade relationship across the BRI; Countries with larger economies and populations are more active in export trade networks. Finally, the paper further points out the policy implications of the above conclusions.

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徐建军,安辉,杨晓伟.“一带一路”跨国金融对出口贸易网络的影响研究 ——基于指数随机图模型的实证检验[J].中国软科学,2022,(6):146-157

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-03
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