自然灾害冲击、居民主观风险偏好与实际风险承担
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F842.0

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国家自然科学基金项目“基于指数化结构的地震风险管理研究”(71673206)。


Shock of natural disasters, residents’ subjective risk preference and actual risk taking
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    摘要:

    基于2010—2017年内的四期中国家庭金融调查数据和省级自然灾害数据,实证分析“自然灾害”这一外生负面冲击对居民主观风险偏好及其实际风险承担的影响。研究发现:(1)自然灾害冲击能够显著降低居民的主观风险偏好,并使其实际风险承担行为更保守,即对居民家庭的高风险金融资产产生了挤出效应;(2)财富效应是自然灾害冲击影响居民风险偏好的主要渠道;(3)商业保险和金融素养在自然灾害冲击对居民风险偏好的影响中发挥了负向调节效应;(4)自然灾害冲击对农村居民和城市居民主观风险偏好的影响具有一致性,在对实际风险承担的影响上,两类样本却存在异质性;(5)不同类型的自然灾害对居民风险偏好的冲击效应表现出了异质性。研究结果为理解自然灾害等突发外生冲击对个体经济行为和社会经济产生的负面影响提供了新的视角和证据。

    Abstract:

    Based on data from the Chinese Household Finance Survey (CHFS) and natural disaster data at the provincial level, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of natural disasters, an exogenous negative shock, on residents’ subjective risk preference and their actual risk-taking behavior. The findings are as follows: (1) The occurrence of natural disasters can significantly reduce the residents’ subjective risk preference, and correspondingly make their actual risk-taking behavior more conservative. Subjective risk preferences play a mediating effect in this process; (2) Wealth effect is the main channel through which the impact of natural disasters affects residents’ risk preference; (3) Commercial insurance and financial literacy have played a significant negative moderating effect on the impact of natural disasters on residents’ risk preference; (4) The impact of natural disaster shocks on the subjective risk preferences of rural residents and urban residents is consistent, but the two types of samples show heterogeneity in the impact on actual risk taking; (5)The impact of different types of natural disasters on residents’ risk preference shows heterogeneity. The main findings of this paper provide a new perspective and evidence for understanding the negative impact of natural disasters and other emergencies on the economy and society.

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田玲,王童阳.自然灾害冲击、居民主观风险偏好与实际风险承担[J].中国软科学,2022,(10):51-60

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-03
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