Abstract:Based on data from the Chinese Household Finance Survey (CHFS) and natural disaster data at the provincial level, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of natural disasters, an exogenous negative shock, on residents’ subjective risk preference and their actual risk-taking behavior. The findings are as follows: (1) The occurrence of natural disasters can significantly reduce the residents’ subjective risk preference, and correspondingly make their actual risk-taking behavior more conservative. Subjective risk preferences play a mediating effect in this process; (2) Wealth effect is the main channel through which the impact of natural disasters affects residents’ risk preference; (3) Commercial insurance and financial literacy have played a significant negative moderating effect on the impact of natural disasters on residents’ risk preference; (4) The impact of natural disaster shocks on the subjective risk preferences of rural residents and urban residents is consistent, but the two types of samples show heterogeneity in the impact on actual risk taking; (5)The impact of different types of natural disasters on residents’ risk preference shows heterogeneity. The main findings of this paper provide a new perspective and evidence for understanding the negative impact of natural disasters and other emergencies on the economy and society.