福兮、祸兮:自然灾害冲击对农户非农创业的影响 ——来自CFPS的经验证据
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F328

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国家社会科学基金重大项目(19ZDA088,22ZDA030);国家自然科学基金面上项目(72273061);江苏省社科基金青年项目(22GLC015)。


Blessing orcurse: the impact of natural disasters on farmers’ non-agricultural entrepreneurship ——Evidence based on CFPS
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    摘要:

    基于CFPS数据,探索自然灾害冲击对农户非农创业的影响及其机制,提供一个理解农户创业的独特视角。研究表明,农户没有因祸得福,灾害冲击会显著降低农户创业可能性。异质性分析发现,自然灾害对女性主导决策、低收入和中西部地区农户的创业行为有更强负面效应。机制分析表明,灾害冲击通过经济、社会、心理3个维度的收入效应、信贷效应、社会资本效应、风险偏好效应、自信心效应5个渠道来影响农户非农创业。研究结果意味着作为“祸”的自然灾害没有转化为激发农户创业的“福”,需加强对自然灾害的防范与应对。

    Abstract:

    Based on CFPS,this paper attempts to analyze the impact of natural disasters on the non-agricultural entrepreneurial behavior of rural households and provides a unique perspective to understand farmer entrepreneurship. The study found that farmers have not tended to start new businesses because of natural disasters. On the contrary, natural disasters reduce the possibility of non-agricultural entrepreneurship. Heterogeneity analysis found that natural disasters have stronger negative effects on female-led decision-making farmers, low-income farmers, and farmers’ in the central and western regions. The mechanisms test show that natural disasters impact farmer entrepreneurship from three dimensions of economy, society, and psychology, and the corresponding five channels includes the income effect, credit effect, social capital effect, risk preference effect and self-confidence effect. This study means that natural disasters have not been transformed from curses into blessings that inspire farmers to engage in non-agricultural entrepreneurship. It is necessary to pay more attention and strengthen the prevention and response to natural disasters.

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钱龙,缪书超,钱文荣,高鸣.福兮、祸兮:自然灾害冲击对农户非农创业的影响 ——来自CFPS的经验证据[J].中国软科学,2022,(11):47-56

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-03
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