负利率环境下的货币政策溢出效应 ——来自欧元区和17个新兴经济体的证据
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F831.5

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国家社科基金重大项目“负利率时代金融系统性风险的识别和防范研究”(20&ZD101)。


Monetary policy spillovers in a negative interest rate environment: Evidence from the eurozone and 17 emerging economies
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    摘要:

    基于欧元区和17个新兴经济体2006年8月至2020年1月的日度高频数据,在识别欧洲央行非常规货币政策的基础上,实证检验负利率环境下欧元区货币政策对于新兴经济体的溢出效应,并比较其与正利率环境下的差异。结果发现,引入负利率后,欧央行的货币政策对新兴经济体产生了广泛的溢出效应。具体表现为:利率下调和量化宽松政策的实施会显著推升新兴经济体的股票价格,造成新兴经济体货币相较于正利率环境下更大幅度的升值,同时还会导致新兴经济体长短期利差的收窄。进一步的研究表明, 欧洲央行与美联储货币政策立场的分化可能是导致负利率环境下欧元区货币政策溢出效应增强的重要因素,本文的研究结论为负利率时代下的跨境金融风险防范提供了有益启示。

    Abstract:

    Based on the daily high-frequency data of the Eurozone and 17 emerging economies from August 2006 to January 2020, this paper empirically examines the impact of Eurozone monetary policy on EMEs in a negative interest rate environment on the basis of identifying the unconventional monetary policy of the ECB. The spillover effects of the economy is compared with that in a positive interest rate environment. It turns out that after the introduction of negative interest rates, the ECB’s monetary policy has had a wide range of spillover effects on EMEs. Specifically, the reduction of target interest rates and the implementation of quantitative easing policy will significantly promote the stock prices of EMEs, cause a greater appreciation of the currencies of EMEs compared with the positive interest rate environment, and lead to the narrowing of the short-term and long-term interest rate spreads of EMEs. Further research shows that the divergence of monetary policy stance between the ECB and the Federal Reserve may be an important factor leading to the enhancement of monetary policy spillover effects in the euro area under the negative interest rate environment. The research conclusion of this paper provides useful enlightenment for the prevention of cross-border financial risks in the era of negative interest rate.

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谭小芬,王欣康.负利率环境下的货币政策溢出效应 ——来自欧元区和17个新兴经济体的证据[J].中国软科学,2022,(12):35-49

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-02
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