一维到三维:人口老龄化层次提升与养老保障结构优化
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F840.67

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国家自然科学基金重点项目“新三支柱‘橄榄型’可持续发展养老制度优化与设计”(71731007);国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国人口老龄化对经济增长影响路径与政策选择研究”(20&ZD077)。


One dimension to three dimensions: Upgrading the level of population aging and optimizing the structure of old-age security
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    摘要:

    依据人口老龄化三个层次,提出三维养老结构设计方案,探索人口老龄化层次提升与三维养老保障结构优化的联动发展规律。研究提出:(1)在老年人口寿命延长条件下,依据生命周期年龄系数,把老年人口年龄系数分为初期老龄化系数、高老龄化系数、超老龄化系数3个层次。(2)依据养老保障收入再分配的3种方式,把养老保障体系分为三维立体结构:一维是代际转移现收现付横向养老保障收入再分配;二维是个人生命周期养老保障纵向收入再分配;三维是社会养老保障综合收入再分配。(3) 在初期老龄化层次,一维养老保障可以实现适度水平;在高老龄化层次,一维加二维养老保障才能达到适度水平;在超老龄化层次,一维加二维再加三维养老保障才能达到适度水平。三维养老保障结构整体联动,有利于积极应对老年人口寿命延长带来的养老保障供需不平衡风险。(4)三维养老保障结构优化,存在着代际养老伦理与养老成本回报,个人养老储蓄与青年期超前消费,公共资本与公共养老责任,社会转移支付与养老替代率剩余等社会经济关系的协调发展。 在此基础上,提出养老保障制度建设政策建议。

    Abstract:

    According to the three levels of population aging, this paper puts forward the design scheme of three-dimensional old-age security structure, and explores the linkage development law between the promotion of population aging level and the optimization of three-dimensional old-age security structure. The research puts forward: (1) Under the condition of prolonging the life span of the elderly population, according to the life-cycle-age-coefficient, the age coefficient of the elderly population is divided into three levels: initial-aging-coefficient, high-aging-coefficient and super-aging-coefficient. (2) According to the three ways of income redistribution of old-age security, the old-age security system is divided into three-dimensional structure: one dimension is the intergenerational transfer of pay-as-you-go horizontal income redistribution of old-age security; the second dimension is the vertical income redistribution of individual life cycle old-age security; The third dimension is the redistribution of comprehensive income of social old-age security. (3) At the level of early aging, one-dimensional old-age security can achieve an appropriate level; at the high level of aging, one-dimensional and two-dimensional old-age security can reach an appropriate level; at the super aging level, one-dimensional plus two-dimensional plus three-dimensional old-age security can reach an appropriate level. The overall linkage of the three-dimensional old-age security structure is conducive to actively deal with the risk of imbalance between supply and demand of old-age security caused by the extension of the life span of the elderly population. (4) The optimization of three-dimensional old-age security structure has the coordinated development of social and economic relations, such as intergenerational old-age ethics and old-age cost return, personal old-age savings and advanced consumption in youth, public capital and public old-age responsibility, social transfer payment and old-age replacement rate surplus. On this basis, it puts forward policy suggestions for the construction of old-age security system.

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穆怀中.一维到三维:人口老龄化层次提升与养老保障结构优化[J].中国软科学,2023,(1):51-62

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-24
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