Achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality is a major decision and deployment made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, which highlights China’s strategic determination to adhere to green and low-carbon development and the responsibility of a major country to actively respond to climate change. Green technological innovation and institutional quality are considered to be effective mechanisms to slow down carbon emissions and promote sustainable development. However, few studies have analyzed the role of technological innovation and institutions in reducing emissions from the perspective of China’s provinces. Therefore, this study examines the long-term impact of China’s inter provincial green technology innovation, institutional quality, renewable energy, fossil fuel energy and economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions from 2000 to 2018. Considering the potential occurrence of residual cross-section dependence and heterogeneity, the empirical analysis is carried out using the augmented mean group (AMG) and the common correlation effect mean group (ccemg). The results show that green technology innovation and renewable energy consumption have a significant negative impact on carbon dioxide emissions. In contrast, institutional quality, economic growth and fossil fuel energy consumption have a positive impact on carbon dioxide emissions. Based on this, in order to identify the path to achieve the “dual carbon” goal, this article proposes suggestions such as reshaping the national innovation system, steadily promoting institutional innovation, and comprehensively coordinating the economic and social development of different industries and regions.