中欧班列战略通道对沿线典型国家经济的影响研究
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Research on the impact of the China-Europe Railway Express strategic passage on the economy of typical countries along the route
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    摘要:

    中欧班列作为“一带一路”倡议中“设施联通”的标志性项目,已成为连接亚欧大陆的战略性国际运输通道。运用全球贸易分析模型(Globe Trade Analysis Project, GTAP),分3种情景测度中欧班列开通对沿线典型国家经济的影响。研究结果表明:第一,中欧班列促进了沿线典型国家宏观经济的发展以及出口商品数量的增加。第二,总体而言,中欧班列的开通对部门产出的促进幅度较小,还存在着较大的发展潜力。第三, 考虑到资本品部门产出与经济增长之间的相互作用关系,模拟了中欧班列开通对沿线典型国家资本品部门产出的影响,认为中欧班列促进了沿线典型国家资本品部门的产出。在此基础上提出了相应的建议。

    Abstract:

    As a landmark project of “infrastructure connectivity” in “the Belt and Road” initiative, China-Europe Railway Express (CERE) has become an international strategic transport passage connecting Eurasia. Under three scenarios, this paper uses the Globe Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) to measure the impact of the opening of CERE on the industrial economy of typical countries along the route. The results show that: Firstly, the opening of CERE promotes macroeconomic development and increases export commodities of typical countries along the route. Secondly, the opening of CERE has little effect on promoting sectoral output, and there is still great potential for development. Thirdly, considering the interaction between the output of the capital goods sector and economic growth, this paper simulates the impact of the opening of CERE on the output of the capital goods sector in typical countries along the route and finds that CERE promotes the output of capital goods sector in typical countries along the route. Finally, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.

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郭际,齐梦龙,吴先华.中欧班列战略通道对沿线典型国家经济的影响研究[J].中国软科学,2023,(8):11-19

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-29
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