This study sets up three tariff concession scenarios, takes the tariff rate as the simulated impact variable, and uses the GTAP model to analyze the changes of China’s agricultural product import and export volume, agricultural product price, agricultural product trade balance and agricultural product output under each scenario. The results illustrate that the tariff concession promotes the increase in the import value of agricultural products and reduces the import price, which has a negative impact on the export of some agricultural products, and the export price index generally rises. Moreover, the export trend of cereal products, meat products, processed rice and other products is enhancing, and the output of China’s grain, cotton, oil, sugar and other bulk agricultural products will be affected, however it is generally controllable. In addition, the study further puts forward some policy recommendations.