ESG评级分歧与分析师盈余预测准确性
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F272

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国家自然科学基金面上项目(72172001,71772001);安徽省自然科学基金优青项目(2208085Y22);安徽省高校杰出青年项目(2022AH020001);首都经济贸易大学新入职青年教师科研启动基金项目(XRZ2022015)。


ESG rating divergence and analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy
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    摘要:

    ESG评级是分析师盈余预测的重要参考依据,然而不同评级机构提供的评级信息却存在较大分歧。基于此,以中国资本市场2009—2021年A股上市公司为样本,实证检验ESG评级分歧对分析师盈余预测准确性的影响。研究发现:(1)ESG评级分歧显著降低了分析师盈余预测准确性。(2)机制检验显示,ESG评级分歧通过增加分析师信息处理成本,进而对盈余预测准确性产生负向影响。(3)异质性分析表明,经济政策不确定性会加剧ESG评级分歧对分析师盈余预测准确性的消极影响,而良好的内部控制能够缓解ESG评级分歧对分析师盈余预测准确性的负向影响。(4)经济后果检验揭示,ESG评级分歧对分析师盈余预测准确性的抑制作用加剧了企业融资约束。研究结论有助于深入理解ESG评级分歧的信息价值和经济后果,同时丰富了分析师盈余预测质量影响因素的相关文献。

    Abstract:

    ESG ratings are an important reference basis for analysts’ earnings forecasts, yet there is a wide divergence in the rating information provided by different rating agencies. Based on this, this paper empirically examines the impact of ESG rating divergence on the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts using a sample of A-share listed companies in the Chinese capital market from 2009 to 2021. The research shows that: (1) ESG rating divergence significantly reduces analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy. (2) Mechanism test shows that ESG rating divergence has a negative impact on earnings forecast accuracy by increasing the information processing cost of analysts. (3) Heterogeneity analysis shows that economic policy uncertainty will exacerbate the negative impact of ESG rating divergence on the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts, while good internal control can mitigate the negative impact of ESG rating divergence on the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts. (4) The economic consequences test reveals that the dampening effect of ESG rating divergence on the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts exacerbates corporate finance constraints. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the informational value and economic consequences of ESG rating divergence, while enriching the literature on the factors influencing the quality of analysts’ earnings forecasts.

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周泽将,谷文菁,伞子瑶. ESG评级分歧与分析师盈余预测准确性[J].中国软科学,2023,(10):164-176

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-29
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