独生子女与养老决策:来自新型农村社会养老保险的证据
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F061.3

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国家社会科学基金重大项目“劳动力流动视角下健全城乡融合发展机制研究”(21&ZD077);国家自然科学基金重点项目“新时期扶贫开发理论与政策研究”(71833003);国家自然科学基金面上项目“粮食安全背景下农户储粮行为的变化及其内在机理研究”(72173085);国家自然科学基金面上项目“化学农资施用的内在机理以及减控或替代方式研究”(71973094);上海交通大学现代金融研究基金(202204)。


One-child policy and pension decision: Evidence from China’s New Rural Pension Scheme
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    摘要:

    始于1979年的独生子女政策,客观上外生地冲击了传统的“养儿防老”生育保障制度,由此当下政策目标也应引导群体从家庭养老向社会养老过渡。利用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)微观数据,以新型农村社会养老保险(新农保)为例,基于模糊断点回归设计检验独生子女政策对农村居民新农保参保决策的影响。研究发现:独生子女政策引致的农村单孩家庭父母新农保参保概率显著更高,并且独生子女政策对新农保参保的促进作用在低资本禀赋家庭、中西部和非“一孩半”政策实施地区更强。机制分析结果表明:独生子女政策引致的农村单孩家庭父母有男性后代的概率更低、晚年收入更少、健康状况更差,进而可能促使其从家庭养老转向社会养老。在人口老龄化的背景下,考虑到独生子女父母生育保障的结构性减少,以财政转移支付补偿代际经济转移,缓解独生子女父母养老压力,有益于增进民生福祉、促进社会公平。

    Abstract:

    China’s one-child policy since 1979 had an exogenous impact on the maternity security of “raising children for old age”, therefore, the current policy goals should guide groups to voluntarily transition from family pension to the social pension. Based on micro data from China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this paper takes China’s New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) as an example, and employs a fuzzy regression discontinuity design to examine the effects of the one-child policy on the NRPS participation decision of the rural people. Empirical results show that the one-child policy has significantly enhanced the NRPS participation. And the policy effects are prominent among households with disadvantaged capital endowment, in the Midwest and the region where the one-child-and-a-half policy was not implemented. Furthermore, we exploit the potential mechanisms and find that the policy-induced one-child parents have a lower probability of having a boy offspring, less income in old age, and worse health conditions, which could prompt them from family pension to social pension. In the context of population aging, considering the structural decrease in the maternity security of one-child parents, the financial transfer can be used to compensate for intergenerational economic transfers and ease the pension pressure on one-child parents, which is conducive to improving people’s well-being and promoting social justice.

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潘嗣同,史清华.独生子女与养老决策:来自新型农村社会养老保险的证据[J].中国软科学,2023,(12):80-89

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-19
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