The Chinese government actively promotes the construction of digital villages that integrate digital technology and rural development. This paper introduces causal inference method to study the importance of influencing factors to the average treatment effect (ATE) of digital rural construction in different periods. This paper constructs a spatial Dubin model to analyze its spatial and temporal characteristics and spillover effects. The research shows that: First, the impact of scientific and technological innovation level on digital rural construction has changed from the negative effect of the previous stage (ATE=-1.908) to the positive effect of the later stage (ATE=1.936); in the later stage, ATC>ATT in the regions with low and medium technological innovation level, indicating that the innovation effect of the regions with low and medium technological innovation level will be better than that of the regions with high technological innovation level. Secondly, the development of digital villages has a strong time accumulation, showing obvious’ ratchet effect’ characteristics; the development level of digital villages is affected by the flow of economic factors and thus forms obvious spatial dependence and spatial spillover effects; the level of local scientific and technological innovation and the upgrading of industrial structure will have a positive impact on the development of local digital villages. The level of scientific and technological innovation and the upgrading of industrial structure in neighboring areas have no actual impact on the development of local digital villages. It can be seen that strengthening the supply capacity of digital agricultural technology innovation and steadily promoting the upgrading of industrial structure are of great significance to the regional coordinated development of digital villages in China.