地方债管理体制改革对数字普惠金融发展的影响机制研究
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F812

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国家社会科学基金项目“财政金融风险叠加视角下地方政府隐性债务的化解路径研究”(18XJY020)。


Research on the influence mechanism of local debt management system reform on the development of digital inclusive finance
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    摘要:

    研究地方债管理体制改革对数字普惠金融发展的影响,对于探索财政金融协同具有重要理论和实践价值。选取地方债管理体制改革为准自然实验,基于2011—2021年我国地级市面板数据,采用强度双重差分法研究地方债管理体制改革对数字普惠金融发展的影响机制。实证研究发现:一是地方债管理体制改革能够有效促进数字普惠金融发展;二是主要通过重新配置信贷资源、改变支出偏好等渠道对数字普惠金融发展的产生影响;三是地方债管理体制改革的积极效果存在一定时滞,平均在政策实施后的第三年开始有效助力数字普惠金融发展;四是这种积极效果在地方财政压力较大的地区不显著。而在地方财政压力较小的情况下,地方债管理体制改革促进数字普惠金融发展的效果在当期开始显现。在此基础上,从专项债、创新监管、经济动能转换等多个视角提出地方债管理体制改革与数字普惠金融协同发展的建议。研究结果丰富了财政金融协同和数字普惠金融的相关研究,为深化改革提供了理论支撑。

    Abstract:

    To study the impact of local debt management system reform on the development of digital inclusive finance has important theoretical and practical value for exploring fiscal and financial synergy. This paper selects the local debt management system reform as a natural experiment, and based on the panel data of China’s prefecture-level cities from 2011 to 2021, adopts the intensity differential method to study the impact mechanism of local debt management system reform on the development of digital inclusive finance. The empirical findings are as follows: first, the reform of local debt management system can effectively promote the development of digital inclusive finance; The second is the impact on the development of digital inclusive finance mainly through the re-allocation of credit resources, changing spending preferences and other channels; Third, there is a lag in the positive effects of the reform of the local debt management system, which on average starts to effectively promote the development of digital inclusive finance in the third year after the implementation of the policy; Fourth, this positive effect is not significant in areas with greater local financial pressure. In the case of small local financial pressure, the effect of local debt management system reform to promote the development of digital inclusive finance began to show in the current period. On this basis, suggestions on the coordinated development of local debt management system reform and digital inclusive finance are put forward from the perspectives of special debt, innovative supervision, and economic momentum transformation. This paper has enriched the relevant research on fiscal and financial synergy and digital inclusive finance, and provided theoretical support for deepening the reform.

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韩健,张又文.地方债管理体制改革对数字普惠金融发展的影响机制研究[J].中国软科学,2024,(9):21-33

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-24
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