地方政府债务与实体经济风险:来自A股上市公司的经验证据
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F812.5;F257;F273

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国家社会科学基金一般项目“网络视角下地方政府融资平台的债务风险传染及治理研究”(23BJY036);北京社会科学基金习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心项目“有效防范化解财政、金融领域重大风险研究”(23LLYJC124);中国社会科学院大学重大培育项目“新时代财政政策效能提升的测度理论、方法与中国实践研究”(20230084)。


Local government debt and enterprise financial risk:Based on the empirical evidence of A-share listed companies
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    摘要:

    基于2010—2022年上市公司数据,探讨地方政府债务风险对实体经济财务风险的影响效应及作用机制。研究发现,地方政府债务风险上升引发区域内实体经济的财务风险上升。机制研究发现,地方政府债务风险主要通过恶化企业营商环境、增加企业融资困难程度加剧实体经济的财务风险。异质性分析表明,低市场化区域的企业、国企的财务风险受地方政府债务负面影响更为显著,其中,相比全口径债务而言,地方政府隐性债务对实体经济风险更具有放大效应。进一步研究表明,支出竞争加深了政府债务风险对实体经济的负面影响,而税收竞争缓解了政府债务风险向实体经济的外溢影响。研究结论为关联化解政府与实体经济风险、推动地方政府有序竞争和优化政企关系提供了参考。

    Abstract:

    Based on the data of listed companies from 2010 to 2022, this paper discusses the effect and mechanism of local government debt risk on the financial risk of the real economy. It is found that the rising debt risk of local governments leads to the rising financial risk of the real economy in the region. The mechanism research shows that the local government debt risk mainly aggravates the financial risk of the real economy by worsening the business environment of enterprises and increasing the difficulty of financing. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the financial risks of enterprises and state-owned enterprises in low-market regions are more negatively affected by local government debt, and the implicit debt of local governments has a more magnifying effect on the risks of the real economy than full-scale debt. Further research shows that expenditure competition has deepened the negative impact of government debt risk on the real economy, while tax competition has alleviated the spillover effect of government debt risk on the real economy. The research conclusion provides a reference for solving the risks between the government and the real economy, promoting the orderly competition of local governments and optimizing the relationship between government and enterprises.

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朱丹,徐铭,刘兆璋.地方政府债务与实体经济风险:来自A股上市公司的经验证据[J].中国软科学,2024,(10):199-211

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-24
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