The core symbol of new quality productive forces is the significant improvement of total factor productivity (TFP), which is essentially green productivity. It is crucial to understand the relationship between carbon emission regulations and TFP. This paper adopts the carbon emission trading pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment, using TFP of manufacturing enterprises to characterize new quality productive forces. Utilizing panel data from Chinese A-share listed manufacturing companies from 2009 to 2022, this study examines the impact of carbon emission trading on TFP and explores the channels through which the effects occur. It finds that carbon emission trading significantly enhances the TFP of manufacturing enterprises. Channel analysis indicates that carbon emission trading boosts TFP by incentivizing green technological innovation and strengthening ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) practices within enterprises. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that for high-profit and high-tax enterprises, the effect of carbon emission trading on TFP is more pronounced. Further discussion indicates that there are similarities and differences in the implementation paths of carbon trading mechanisms, carbon quota allocation methods, and carbon market regulation mechanisms among countries. These conclusions provide theoretical foundations and practical references for improving the carbon emission trading mechanism and fostering new quality productive forces in the manufacturing sector.