气候风险、环境行动与地方政府债券发行定价
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F812.7

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国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国场景下气候风险与企业财务行为:影响、作用路径与经济后果”(72372165)。


Climate risk, environmental action and issuance pricing of local government bond
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    摘要:

    气候风险是否引起投资者关注并在金融市场的资产定价中得以合理反映是气候金融学关注的重要问题之一。以气候风险中最具破坏性、影响范围最广的干旱风险为例,通过考察干旱风险对地方债发行定价的影响,进而对此问题展开探讨。研究发现,干旱风险显著提高了地方债发行时的信用利差和到期收益率,这种影响在农业产量较高、经济发展水平较低的省市自治区所发行的地方债中更为明显,而干旱风险对地方财政的冲击以及投资者对气候变化的关注度是干旱风险被定价的重要机制。进一步的研究表明,诸如地方水利建设、南水北调工程建设等基于水资源改善的环境行动在总体上能够减轻投资者对未来气候风险的负面预期,进而降低地方债发行时的干旱风险溢价。总之,气候风险已成为影响我国地方债发行定价的重要因素之一,且基于水资源改善的环境行动在抑制气候风险所引起的融资成本提升中发挥着积极作用。

    Abstract:

    One of the most important issues in climate finance is whether climate risks are attracting investors’ attention and reasonably pricing in the financial markets. To address this issue, this paper takes drought risk, which is the most destructive and widely climate risk caused by climate change, as a proxy for climate risk and empirically examines its impact on the issuance pricing of local government bond. We find that drought risk significantly increases the credit spread and yield of local government bond, especially in the agriculturally dependent and less developed province. Mechanism analysis indicates that drought risk premium is embedded in issuance pricing through fiscal pressure intensification and investor climate awareness. Further research indicates that environmental actions committed to improving water resources, such as local water conservancy construction and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, can mitigate investors’ negative concerns about future climate risks, thereby reducing the drought risk premium in local government bond. Overall, climate risks have become one of the important factors affecting the issuance pricing of local government bond, and environmental actions committed to improving water resources restrain the rise in financing costs caused by climate risks.

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顾乃康,邱奇唯.气候风险、环境行动与地方政府债券发行定价[J].中国软科学,2025,(1):157-174

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-17
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