中国能源韧性与科技创新的协调演化及影响因素研究
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国家社会科学基金重大项目(19BGL208);国家自然科学基金项目(51877122);湖北省人民政府智力成果采购项目(2022HB-ZLCG-06)。


Research on the coordinated evolution and influencing factors of energy resilience and scientific and technological innovation in China
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    摘要:

    地缘政治冲突加剧全球能源市场动荡,凸显了总体国家安全观下国家能源韧性的重要性。立足创新驱动发展战略,构建“资源禀赋—产业发展”二维评价矩阵,采用熵权TOPSIS法、耦合协调度模型、核密度估计和Catboost算法,多维度探讨2011—2022年中国30个省(不含西藏及港澳台地区)能源韧性与科技创新的协调关系及其时空演化规律,同时借助SHAP解释框架揭示其主要影响因素。结果表明:(1)两者均呈稳步增长态势,但在发展进程中存在不平衡现象和不充分特征;(2)两者的协调度在时序上呈跨越式进步,但各区域空间分异规律明显,逐渐形成“产业主导型区域领先、创新发展型区域和综合发展型区域凹陷、资源主导型区域追赶”的区际梯次格局;(3)各区域的影响因素存在不同的阈值特征和促进机制,科技创新水平差异是造成协调度差异的根本原因。基于此,提出势能治理跨越“科技鸿沟”、资源协同践行“能源革命”和因地制宜推进协调发展的策略。

    Abstract:

    Geopolitical conflicts have exacerbated volatility in global energy markets, highlighting the importance of national energy resilience within the overall national security perspective. This paper, anchored in an innovation-driven development strategy, develops a two-dimensional evaluation matrix of “esource endowment-industrial development”. Utilizing the entropy weight TOPSIS method, coupling coordination degree model, kernel density estimation, and the Catboost algorithm, the research examines the coordination between energy resilience and technological innovation, as well as their spatio-temporal evolution across 30 Chinese provinces (excluding Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) from 2011 to 2022. Additionally, the SHAP framework is employed to identify key influencing factors. The findings indicate that: (1) Both energy resilience and technological innovation have steadily increased, though their development is marked by imbalances and inadequacies.(2) The coordination between them has improved markedly over time, yet distinct regional spatial differentiation persists, forming a hierarchical pattern of “industry- leading regions, innovation- driven and comprehensive development lagging regions, and resource- dominated regions pursuing growth”.(3) Influencing factors vary by region, exhibiting different thresholds and facilitative mechanisms, with disparities in technological innovation levels being the primary drivers of coordination differences. Based on these results, the study recommends governance strategies to bridge the "technology gap" synchronize resource management to implement an "energy revolution" and promote coordinated development tailored to local contexts.

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王守文,郭蕊,王树斌.中国能源韧性与科技创新的协调演化及影响因素研究[J].中国软科学,2025,(1):208-224

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-17
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