区域经济增长尾部风险的网络关联与溢出机制
DOI:
CSTR:
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

F061.5

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金面上项目“不确定性冲击的分类识别、传导机制及其对中国经济金融稳定的影响研究”(72473051);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“跨周期和逆周期结合下的金融安全维护研究”(22JJD790066);吉林大学2024年研究生创新研究计划项目“复杂网络视域下外部多维不确定性冲击对中国金融稳定的溢出机制与传导路径甄别”(2024CX014)。


Network linkages and spillover mechanisms of regional economic growth tail risks
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    尾部风险的跨域传染是制约区域经济协调发展的重大隐患,为此亟需明晰地区经济增长尾部风险的空间传染路径与溢出渠道。基于在险增长的分布估计范式测度出中国省级经济增长尾部风险,在此基础上分别应用社会网络分析法与空间杜宾模型考察区域经济增长尾部风险的网络关联特征与溢出机制。研究发现:尾部风险存在显著的事件驱动和多元分布特征,极端事件冲击会在短期激化尾部风险,西部地区和长江经济带目前表现出强劲的风险免疫韧性;区域经济尾部风险具有突出的溢出深度和溢出广度,其中黄河流域经济带与其他地区的风险联动较为明显;投资与消费需求衰退以及地方财政竞争引发的要素虹吸效应会加剧尾部风险溢出,而银行信贷的良性扩张有助于抑制尾部风险扩散。研究结果为促进经济稳增长与防风险的动态平衡、推进区域协调可持续发展进程提供了有益的政策启示。

    Abstract:

    Cross-area transmission of tail risk is a major hidden danger that restricts the coordinated development of regional economy, therefore, it is urgent to clarify the spatial transmission paths and spillover channels of the tail risk of regional economic growth. In this paper, we measure the tail risk of China’s provincial economic growth based on the GaR framework, and on the basis of which, we use social network analysis and the spatial Durbin model to investigate the network correlation characteristics and spillover mechanism of the tail risk of regional economic growth, respectively. This study finds that tail risk is event-driven and multi-distributed, and extreme event shocks can intensify tail risk in the short term, while the western region and the Yangtze River Economic Belt currently show strong risk immunity resilience. Regional tail risks have outstanding spillover depth and breadth, in which the risk linkage between the Yellow River Basin Economic Belt and other regions is more prominent. The recession of investment and consumption demand and the siphoning effect of factors triggered by local fiscal competition will exacerbate the spillover of the tail risk, while the benign expansion of bank credit will help to inhibit the proliferation of the tail risk. This paper provides useful policy insights for promoting the dynamic balance between stabilizing economic growth and risk prevention, and promoting the process of coordinated and sustainable regional development.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

吴健,邓创.区域经济增长尾部风险的网络关联与溢出机制[J].中国软科学,2025,(2):119-129

复制
分享
相关视频

文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-09
  • 出版日期:
文章二维码