贸易摩擦如何影响中国数字产品出口质量升级:基于数字经济核心产业的经验证据
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F752.69;F49

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国家社会科学基金一般项目“人民币国际化赋能国际循环质量提升的机制、效应与政策研究”(24BGJ019)。


How does trade frictions affect the quality upgrade of China’s digital products export: Empirical evidence based on the core industries of the digital economy
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    摘要:

    推动数字产品出口质量升级是中国创新发展数字贸易、加快建设贸易强国的内在要求与实现经济高质量发展的重要手段,但频繁的贸易摩擦加剧了中国数字产品出口及质量提升的不确定性。在理论分析的基础上,以数字经济核心产业为对象,采用2011年1月—2021年12月的数据,实证检验贸易摩擦对数字产品出口质量升级的影响、作用机制以及FTA的调节效应。结果发现:贸易摩擦的数量增多与歧视性加深均显著阻碍中国数字产品出口质量升级;其主要机制与渠道是推高中间品进口价格和减少中间品进口数量;自由贸易协定可以有效缓解贸易摩擦对数字产品出口质量升级的抑制效应。异质性分析发现:随着数字产品出口质量提高,贸易摩擦的影响呈“N”型态势;非关税措施的负向影响大于关税措施,进出口政策、劳动力迁移政策、本地化政策、补贴与国家援助政策、贸易救济措施以及其他措施类贸易摩擦的数量增多与歧视性加深均不利于数字产品出口质量升级;不涉及具体产品贸易摩擦较涉及具体产品贸易摩擦的负向影响更大,近年来专门针对数字产品的贸易摩擦所产生的不利影响日渐显著;OECD成员发起贸易摩擦的阻碍效应大于非OECD成员。

    Abstract:

    Promoting the upgrading of the quality of digital products export is an inherent requirement for China’s innovative development of digital trade, accelerate China’s transformation into a trader of quality, and an important means to achieve high-quality economic development. However, frequent trade frictions have intensified the uncertainty of China’s digital products export and quality improvement. Based on theoretical analysis, this article focuses on the core industries of the digital economy, uses data from January 2011 to December 2021 to empirically test the impact of trade frictions on the upgrade of digital products export quality, the mechanism of action and the moderating effect of Free Trade Agreement(FTA). The results demonstrated that, the increasing number and the deepening discrimination of trade frictions have significantly hindered the upgrading of the quality of China’s digital products export. Its main mechanism and channel are to push up the import price of intermediate goods and reduce the import quantity of intermediate good. joining the FTA can effectively alleviate the inhibitory effect of trade frictions on the upgrading of the quality of digital products export. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that, with the improvement of the quality of digital products export, the impact of trade frictions shows an “N” - shaped trend. The negative impact of non-tariff measures is greater than that of tariff measures. The number and discriminatory of trade frictions such as import and export policies, labor force migration policies, localization policies, subsidies and state aid policies, trade defence measures and other measures are not conducive to the upgrading of the export quality of digital products. The negative impact of trade frictions not specifically aimed at specific products is stronger, but in recent years, trade frictions that specifically target digital products have a gradually significant impact. The obstructive effect of trade frictions initiated by Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD) members is greater than that of non-OECD members.

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马斌,何亚男.贸易摩擦如何影响中国数字产品出口质量升级:基于数字经济核心产业的经验证据[J].中国软科学,2025,(3):214-224

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-09
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