中国迈向农业强国的历史检验与路径突破
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F312.5

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国家社会科学基金重大项目“加快建设农业强国的主要目标、重点任务与对策研究”(23ZDA045)。


China’s journey to becoming an agricultural power: a historical examination and pathway breakthrough
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    摘要:

    基于对全球范围内农业强国的概念及评价标准的系统梳理,分析农业强国的生成路径、核心特征与未来演变趋势,并结合现实国情探讨中国在全球农业强国格局中的历史地位和发展前景。研究发现,美国、荷兰等已公认的农业强国普遍具备发达的经济社会背景、与社会平均水平大体相当的农业劳动生产率,以及在全球范围内具有影响力的农产品优势。为了揭示农业强国的内在形成机理,提出“起点—过程”分析框架,阐明初始禀赋与过程演化在塑造农业强国过程中的相互作用。结合当前大量生计农业与专业化生产并存的二元结构,认为推动传统小农加速退出并实现规模化、科技化经营,是我国迈向农业强国的关键,并通过强化社会保障、完善要素市场以及发展农业社会化服务体系,可在降低社会成本的基础上进一步提升农业竞争力。在中国式现代化的持续推进下,我国有望在较短时期内解除现阶段的结构性约束,实现从农业大国向农业强国的转变。

    Abstract:

    Drawing on a systematic review of the concepts and evaluation criteria for agricultural powerhouses worldwide, this paper analyzes how agricultural power emerges, its core features, and its future development trajectory. It then examines China’s historical status and prospects within the global context of agricultural powers in light of the nation’s current circumstances. The research finds that widely recognized agricultural powers—such as the United States and the Netherlands—typically possess advanced socio-economic backgrounds, agricultural labor productivity levels comparable to those in other sectors, and influential agricultural products in global markets. To clarify the underlying mechanism by which agricultural powerhouses take shape, this paper introduces a “starting point-process” analytical framework, illuminating the role of initial endowments and evolutionary processes in molding an agricultural powerhouse. Given the coexistence of numerous smallholder subsistence farms and specialized, large-scale agricultural operations in China, this study argues that facilitating the accelerated exit of traditional small-scale farming and achieving scaled, technology-driven operations are critical steps toward establishing China as an agricultural powerhouse. At the same time, strengthening social security, refining factor markets, and expanding agricultural social services can bolster competitiveness while keeping social costs under control. With the ongoing progress of Chinese-style modernization, China is poised to overcome its current structural constraints within a relatively short time and advance from a major agricultural nation to a true agricultural power.

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胡冰川.中国迈向农业强国的历史检验与路径突破[J].中国软科学,2025,(4):1-11

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-03
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