全球锂电池产业链贸易格局演化、趋势研判及韧性分析
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F746.2/.9

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广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目(2025A1515012990);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项项目(29010500)。


Evolution of the global lithium battery industry chain trade structure, trend assessment, and resilience analysis
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    摘要:

    近年来,全球产业链正加速重构,系统性风险日益突出,通过整合全球锂电池产业上游、中游及下游的全链条贸易数据,构建覆盖“资源开采—材料加工—终端应用—回收再生”闭环的动态复杂网络模型和锂电池全产业链网络的五维韧性综合评价体系,对2001—2023年全球锂电池贸易网络演变特征进行分析刻画,仿真其韧性变化,提出“技术突破—资源多元化—生态闭环”三位一体策略。研究发现:2001—2023年,锂电池全产业链网络的连通性、贸易紧密性以及传输效率均在上升,贸易网络整体向全球化、复杂化方向演变,特别是自2019年以来,锂电池全产业链的不稳定性增加,贸易逐渐向区域化、多极化方向转移。2001—2023年,锂电池全产业链具有高度异质性,产业链在效率提升的同时,脆弱性也在增加;锂电池产业链的韧性从高到低依次为下游、中游、上游。基于此,提出建议:实施资源供应链产业链战略转移;从资源加工优势转向关键技术溢出;强化电池回收,构建锂电池闭环生态韧性供应链。

    Abstract:

    In recent years, the global industrial chain has been accelerating its restructuring, with systemic risks becoming increasingly prominent. This study integrates the full chain international trade data from the upstream, midstream, and downstream of the global lithium battery industry to construct a dynamic complex network model that covers the closed-loop process of “resource extraction-material processing-end application-recycling.” Additionally, a five-dimensional comprehensive evaluation system for assessing the resilience of the entire lithium battery industrial chain network has been developed. The research analyzes and characterizes the evolution characteristics of the global lithium battery trade network from 2001 to 2023, simulating changes in its resilience. Based on the findings, a trinity strategy of “technological breakthrough-resource diversification-ecological closed-loop” is proposed. The study reveals that, from 2001 to 2023, the connectivity, trade closeness, and transmission efficiency of the entire lithium battery industrial chain network have consistently increased, indicating that the overall trade network is evolving toward globalization and complexity. Notably, since 2019, the instability of the entire lithium battery industrial chain has risen, with trade shifting gradually toward regionalization and multi-polarization. During the study period, the entire lithium battery industrial chain exhibited high heterogeneity. While the efficiency of the industrial chain has improved, its vulnerability has also increased. The resilience of the lithium battery industrial chain, in descending order, is downstream, midstream, and upstream. The study suggests implementing the strategic transfer of the resource supply chain industrial chain, shifting from the advantage of resource processing to the spillover of key technologies, and strengthening battery recycling to build a closed-loop ecological-resilient supply chain for lithium batteries.

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李帅威,王文军.全球锂电池产业链贸易格局演化、趋势研判及韧性分析[J].中国软科学,2025,(4):26-40

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-03
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