Considering the complexity and non-transparency of pricing mechanism for refined oil products in China, the article argues that the interaction and coupling among problem stream (economic trends, force majeures), policy stream (market supplies and demands, policy regulations) and political stream (geopolitics, negative emotions) will open a policy window and trigger adjustments in China’s refined oil prices through the grounded method combined with the multiple streams theory. The fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis method(fsQCA) is used to explore the intrinsic synergistic effects among the six major factors, and the configuration paths of the impact of China’s refined oil prices at different stages are plotted. The results indicate that the long-term trends of China’s refined oil prices are influenced by problem stream and policy stream, while short-term fluctuations are influenced by problem stream and political stream. And the policy regulations are important measures to stabilize refined oil market in China.