基于SEM—模糊综合评价的集成电路产业链韧性评价研究
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F426.63;F273.1

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国家社会科学基金项目“集成电路产业集群韧性测度、影响因素和提升路径研究”(21BJY020); 国家统计局课题项目“新形势下我国产业链供应链韧性监测研究”(2023LY073); 江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目“中国式现代化江苏新实践:新兴行业产业链供应链韧性与安全水平研究”(2024SJZD055)。


Research on the resilience evaluation of the integrated circuit industry chain based on SEM-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
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    摘要:

    集成电路产业作为国民经济的重要支柱,兼具高技术、高投入与高风险特征。针对当前产业链韧性不足导致的“断链”风险,从抵抗吸收能力、调整适应能力和恢复更新能力3个维度构建包含9个二级指标及29个三级指标的集成电路产业链韧性评价体系。通过结构方程模型(SEM)量化指标权重,揭示各维度间的内在关联,并结合模糊综合评价法,以南京江北新区为实证案例,评估其产业链韧性水平。研究表明:江北新区集成电路产业链总体韧性表现良好,其中恢复更新能力显著优于抵抗吸收能力与调整适应能力,与区域创新驱动发展现状相符。这个模型突破了传统方法对数据变异和主观判断的依赖,通过SEM-模糊综合评价的融合方法,实现了指标权重的客观赋权与韧性等级的科学划分,为产业链韧性动态监测与精准提升提供了理论工具和实践范式。

    Abstract:

    The integrated circuit (IC) industry is a vital pillar of the national economy, characterized by high technology, high investment, and high risk. This paper addresses the “supply chain disruption” risks arising from the insufficient resilience of the current IC industry chain. It constructs an evaluation system for the resilience of the IC industry chain, incorporating three dimensions: resistance absorption, adjustment adaptability, and recovery renewal capacity, with 9 secondary indicators and 29 tertiary indicators. The Structural Equation Model (SEM) is applied to quantify the weights of the indicators and reveal the intrinsic correlations among the dimensions. Additionally, the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation method is employed, with the Jiangbei New District of Nanjing used as an empirical case to assess the resilience of its industry chain. The study shows that the overall resilience of Jiangbei New District’s IC industry chain is good, with the recovery renewal capacity significantly outperforming the resistance absorption and adjustment adaptability, aligning with the region’s innovation-driven development status. This model breaks through traditional methods that rely on data variability and subjective judgment, achieving objective assignment of indicator weights and scientific classification of resilience levels through the SEM-Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation integration method, providing theoretical tools and practical paradigms for dynamic monitoring and precise enhancement of industry chain resilience.

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吴松强,戴颖茏,潘杰.基于SEM—模糊综合评价的集成电路产业链韧性评价研究[J].中国软科学,2025,(5):166-178

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-03
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