城市群建设对居民消费率的影响研究
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F290

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国家社会科学基金重大项目“数字赋能中国全球价值链攀升的路径与测度研究”(21&ZD148);全国统计科学研究重点项目“我国产业链供应链韧性的监测与提升:链条解构、动态测度与路径模拟”(2023LZ024);辽宁省社会科学规划基金重大委托项目“辽宁省产业链供应链韧性和安全水平的监测与提升:链条解构、动态测度与路径模拟”(L23ZD053)。


Impact of national urban agglomeration policies on the household consumption rate in China
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    摘要:

    国家级城市群作为承载区域发展的关键空间战略,其能否有效带动消费增长,是亟待实证检验的重要议题。基于中国256座地级及以上城市2010—2023年面板数据,运用渐进双重差分方法评估了城市群建设对居民消费率的影响,并运用倾向得分匹配与双重差分相结合的方法(PSM-DID)进一步进行验证。研究发现,政策显著提升了被批复城市约1.51%的居民消费率,该结论在一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。机制分析表明,上述政策效应通过显著降低中心城区首位度,并进一步促进区域内收入分配改善、数字金融服务普及和数字消费平台扩散,有效传导了其对居民消费的积极影响。进一步的异质性分析表明,政策效应显著依赖于城市的地理形态与产业结构特征,与人力资本水平和地铁通达性的关联度不高。研究结论对促进“十五五”时期内需提振与空间发展两大目标的协同增效具有重要参考价值。

    Abstract:

    National-level urban agglomerations represent a crucial spatial strategy tasked with the dual missions of fostering regional development and advancing national modernization. Whether this strategy can effectively stimulate consumption growth is a critical issue demanding empirical investigation. Utilizing panel data from 256 prefecture-level and above cities in China spanning 2010-2023, this study employs both staggered Difference-in-Differences (DID) and Propensity Score Matching Difference-in-Differences (PSM-DID) methodologies to empirically examine the impact of the national-level urban agglomeration policy on resident consumption rates and its underlying mechanisms. The findings indicate that the policy significantly increased the resident consumption rate in the designated cities by approximately 1.51%. This conclusion remains robust across a series of validation checks. Mechanism analysis reveals that the policy effect is positively transmitted to resident consumption primarily through a significant reduction in central city primacy. This reduction, in turn, facilitates improvements in intra-regional income distribution, promotes the popularization of digital financial services, and encourages the diffusion of digital consumption platforms. Further heterogeneity analysis suggests that the policy’s effectiveness is significantly contingent upon the cities’ geographical morphology and industrial structure characteristics. Conversely, its association with human capital levels and subway accessibility appears limited. These research conclusions offer significant insights for achieving synergy between the objectives of boosting domestic demand and advancing spatial development during China’s upcoming “15th Five-Year Plan” period.

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聂昀秋,马晓君,李海明.城市群建设对居民消费率的影响研究[J].中国软科学,2025,(5):187-201

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-03
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