人口老龄化、收入再分配与储蓄结构变动
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F201

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国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国人口老龄化对经济增长影响路径与政策选择”(20&ZD077)。


Population aging,the increase in redistribution and changes in savings syructure
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    摘要:

    在国内大循环体系中储蓄和消费是经济增长的重要动力。中国人口老龄化加深,在世代交叠收入再分配条件下,会使劳动力的代际再分配增加,但储蓄会减少吗?这是值得具体研究的问题。依据生命周期均衡再分配原理,构建人口老龄化、再分配及储蓄结构变动评估数理模型,研究人口老龄化、再分配及储蓄结构变动规律,探索人口老龄化背景下经济增长动力。研究发现:(1)人口老龄化上升,代际再分配增加,储蓄率不一定减少,应对老年养老风险的储蓄增加,到2035年社会养老储蓄增加11.87%,存在人口老龄化背景下再分配增加和养老储蓄增加的同向结构变动;(2)代际再分配增加,老年消费增加,到2035年老年消费增加13.13%;(3)中国近远期养老储蓄投资和消费是经济增长重要动力,到2035年对经济增长贡献度达到0.54个百分点。研究结果对于积极应对人口老龄化战略实施具有参考价值。

    Abstract:

    In the domestic economic cycle framework, savings and consumption play a crucial role as the driving forces propelling economic growth. As China experiences a deepening population aging process, within the context of overlapping generations where intergenerational income redistribution occurs, the intergenerational redistribution of the labor force is bound to increase. Nevertheless, a question arises: will savings decline? This is a specific and thought-provoking issue that merits in-depth exploration. Adhering to the principle of balanced redistribution across the life cycle, this paper establishes a mathematical model for the evaluation of population aging, income redistribution, and variations in the savings rate. It undertakes a comprehensive study on the changing trends of population aging, income redistribution, and the changes in savings structure, with the aim of delving into the driving forces behind economic growth under the circumstances of population aging. The research findings are presented as follows: (1) In the face of population aging and the growth in intergenerational redistribution, the savings rate does not necessarily experience a downward trend. On the contrary, savings targeted at mitigating the pension risks faced by the elderly witness an increase. By 2035, social pension savings are projected to rise by 11.87%. (2) As intergenerational redistribution expands, the consumption level of the elderly also ascends. By 2035, social elderly consumption is expected to increase by 13.13%. (3) In both the short and long term within China, the investment and consumption derived from pension savings constitute significant driving forces for economic growth. By 2035, their contribution to economic growth is anticipated to reach 0.55 percentage points. The research outcomes hold valuable reference significance for the implementation of strategies to actively respond to population aging.

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穆怀中,孟婉荣,陈曦.人口老龄化、收入再分配与储蓄结构变动[J].中国软科学,2025,(6):8-17

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-03
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