从二阶防控到四阶规避:AI技术的安全底线设计
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C312

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国家社会科学基金重大项目“新时代中国国家安全法治体系和能力现代化研究”(24&ZD120)。


From second-order prevention to fourth-order avoidance: the bottom-line design of safety for AI technology
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    摘要:

    AI技术及相关产业的发展在推动智能时代的同时伴生安全风险。但既有研究对AI安全风险的认知局限于一般社会风险治理视角,其防控举措表现为“过程—结果”的二阶防控,轻视对风险主体的考察,忽视风险结果的未来影响。为克服研究局限,从底线思维出发提出AI领域“切尔诺贝利事故”的安全风险隐喻,在一般风险二阶防控的基础上形成“主体—过程—结果—过程”四阶规避理念。在阐述AI安全风险双重形态以及生成逻辑的基础上,基于四阶规避理念阐述AI安全底线设计的三大基准性考量:一是由“主体”到“过程”的透明性基准,回应AI事故事后追责难题与认知困境;二是由“过程”到“结果”的预防性基准,意在进行AI风险底线防控与常态可控;三是由“结果”到“过程”的阻断性基准,思考AI风险的代际传递。基于三大基准性考量,进行安全底线设计的相应制度建构:一是围绕透明性基准进行算法黑箱透明、人机交互透明、数据流动透明的制度建构;二是围绕预防性基准进行安全阈值、最坏情形、冗余容错的制度建构;三是围绕阻断性基准进行阻断能源消耗、伦理债务、社会解构等代际传递风险的制度建构。

    Abstract:

    The advancement of AI technology and related industries has propelled the intelligent era while simultaneously introducing safety risks. However, existing research predominantly perceives AI safety risks through the lens of general social risk governance, adopting a “process-outcome” second-order prevention approach. This perspective underestimates the examination of risk agents and neglects the future implications of risk consequences. To address these limitations, this study introduces the metaphor of extreme safety risks in AI as “Chernobyl disasters” from a bottom-line thinking perspective, proposing a “agent-process-outcome-process” fourth-order avoidance framework that builds upon conventional second-order prevention. After elucidating the dual manifestations and generative logic of extreme AI safety risks, this paper outlines three foundational considerations for AI safety bottom-line design based on the fourth-order avoidance framework:1.The transparency benchmark, transitioning from “agent” to “process,” addresses post-incident accountability challenges and cognitive dilemmas in AI disasters; 2. The preventive benchmark, shifting from “process” to “outcome,” aims to establish bottom-line prevention and maintain normalized controllability of AI risks; 3. The blocking benchmark tackles the intergenerational transmission of AI risks. Guided by these benchmarks, corresponding institutional constructs are proposed: 1.For transparency: institutional designs for algorithmic black-box transparency, human-machine interaction transparency, and data flow transparency; 2. For prevention: institutional frameworks addressing safety thresholds, worst-case scenarios, and redundancy/fault tolerance; 3.For blocking: institutional mechanisms to curb intergenerational risks such as energy consumption, ethical debt, and societal deconstruction.

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翁春露.从二阶防控到四阶规避:AI技术的安全底线设计[J].中国软科学,2025,(6):18-27

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-03
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