区域技术性贸易壁垒协定与全球价值链合作网络演化
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F114.4;F117

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山东省自然科学基金面上项目“经济制裁对国内高端制造业价值链冲击风险评估及韧性提升路径研究”(ZR2024MG035);山东省高等学校青创科技支持计划项目“‘一带一路’经贸合作创新团队:‘一带一路’倡议下新旧动能转换的实现路径研究”(2021RW019)。


Regional agreements on technical barriers to trade and evolution of global value chain cooperation network
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    摘要:

    在WTO规则边缘化背景下,区域合作日益紧密,而区域技术性贸易壁垒(TBT)协定影响贸易合作水平,从而影响全球价值链合作网络重塑。文章基于时间指数随机图模型,深入考察区域TBT协定对全球价值链合作网络的影响,并探讨网络演化的内生机制。研究发现:第一,区域TBT协定网络会促进全球价值链合作网络发展,合作关系存在互惠性和传递闭合性;第二,区域TBT协定中设置有关减少贸易扭曲、以WTO/TBT协定作为参考等条款对全球价值链合作网络发展的促进作用明显;第三,多边协议国家和位于同一洲内联系紧密的国家间签订的区域TBT协定网络更有利于全球价值链合作网络发展,区域TBT协定网络促进了高端制造业和数字服务业全球价值链合作网络发展,多目标制裁网络会严重冲击全球价值链合作网络。通过内生时间效应分析发现,全球价值链合作网络演化路径具有较强的稳定性,已有的合作关系倾向于延续至未来的合作网络中。研究结果为优化区域TBT协定合作、提高全球价值链合作网络水平和韧性提供了重要的参考依据。

    Abstract:

    In the context of the marginalization of WTO rules, regional cooperation has become increasingly close, and the regional technical barriers to trade (TBT) agreements have deeply affected the level of trade cooperation, thus affecting the reshaping of the global value chain cooperation network. Based on the time exponential random graph models, this paper investigates the influence of regional TBT agreements on global value chain cooperation networks and discusses the endogenous mechanism of network evolution. The findings are as follows: First, regional TBT agreement network will promote the development of GVC cooperation network, the cooperation relationship has reciprocity and transmission closure. Second, the provisions such as reducing trade distortions and taking the WTO/TBT agreement as a reference set in regional TBT agreements have a significant promoting effect on the development of the global value chain cooperation network. Third, the regional TBT agreement network signed by multilateral agreement countries and the regional TBT agreement network signed by closely connected countries within the same continent are more conducive to the development of the global value chain cooperation network. The regional TBT agreements have promoted the development of a global value chain cooperation network for high-end manufacturing and digital services, and multi-target sanctions will seriously impact the global value chain cooperation network. In addition, through the analysis of endogenous time effects, it is found that the development and evolution path of GVC cooperation network has strong stability, and existing cooperation relationships tend to directly continue into the future cooperation network. The research provides an important reference for optimizing regional TBT cooperation and improving the level and resilience of global value chain cooperation network.

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赵明亮,马富伟.区域技术性贸易壁垒协定与全球价值链合作网络演化[J].中国软科学,2025,(6):111-121

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-03
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