增值税税率下调与企业稳岗扩岗
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F976.1

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湖南省社会科学基金青年项目“增值税改革助推企业高质量发展的效应评估及对策建议研究”(24YBQ150)。


PENG Keren
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    摘要:

    运用税收政策支持各类主体履行稳岗扩岗社会责任是党中央、国务院的明确要求。以2013—2023年沪深A股上市公司为样本,使用多时点双重差分法考察增值税税率下调对企业劳动雇佣的影响。研究表明,增值税税率下调使得企业劳动雇佣规模增加了约3.0%,相当于每家样本企业平均增加了172个就业岗位。进一步分析发现,增值税税率下调显著增加了研究生学历以及研发岗和管理岗的劳动力雇佣规模,雇佣结构整体呈现出以高素质、高技术人才为主的特点。机制分析发现,增值税税率下调通过增加企业经营性现金流和改善银行信贷获取两条路径增加企业雇佣规模。异质性分析发现,在税负转嫁难度较大、获取银行贷款难度较大以及数字技术密集型企业中,增值税税率下调的就业促进效应更明显。研究结果从企业劳动雇佣视角拓展了增值税改革的政策效应研究,为后续利用税制改革促进高质量充分就业提供了重要政策参考。

    Abstract:

    This paper explores whether value-added tax (VAT) rate reduction can affect the employment size of firms. Specifically, based on the data of Shanghai-Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2013 to 2023, this paper tests the effects of China’s VAT rate reduction on the employment size of firms by using a quasi-natural experiment design and the time-varying DID approach. The results show that the VAT rate reduction significantly promotes employment absorption by firms. The further study shows that the VAT rate reduction significantly increases the employment of workers with postgraduate degrees and workers in management and R&D positions. The mechanism analysis shows that the VAT rate reduction expands the employment of firms by increasing firm’s operating cash flows and bank loans. The heterogeneity study shows that the positive relationship between the VAT rate reduction and corporate employment is concentrated in digital firms and firms facing greater difficulties in transferring tax burden and acquiring bank loans. This paper contributes to the extant research on the effects of VAT reform and the growing literature on the determinants of corporate employment.

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彭可人.增值税税率下调与企业稳岗扩岗[J].中国软科学,2025,(6):191-203

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-03
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