美国对华出口管制是否倒逼了中国企业增加研发投入:来自实体清单的证据
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F120.4

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国家社会科学基金项目“增强国内大循环内生动力和可靠性与提升国际循环质量和水平研究”(22VRC082);国家社会科学基金重大项目“实现高质量发展和高水平安全良性互动研究”(2024MZD026);中国社会科学院重大创新项目“构建三次分配协调配套的制度体系研究”(2024YZD013)。


Whether the US export control policy has forced Chinese enterprises to invest more in R&D: evidence from the entity list
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    摘要:

    构建美国对华出口管制倒逼中国企业增加研发投入的理论框架,利用实体清单,并选取2014—2022年A股上市公司数据,通过优化样本筛选策略,运用内生转换回归(ESR)模型,实证检验出口管制对企业研发投入的影响。研究发现,美国对华出口管制显著倒逼了中国企业增加研发投入。该效应受到企业异质性特征的影响,对非国有、无海外业务及位于三大都市圈的企业加大研发投入的效应更为明显,且市场集中度负向调节出口管制对企业增加研发投入产生倒逼效应。此外,政府补助不但加大企业被列入实体清单的概率,而且激励企业增加研发投入。研究结果为应对外部冲击、提高关键领域自主创新能力提供了理论支撑与经验证据。

    Abstract:

    This paper develops a theoretical framework to analyze the impact of U.S. export controls on China, particularly examining how such policies compel Chinese enterprises to increase their R&D investment. Drawing on data from A-share listed companies between 2014 and 2022, along with an optimized sample screening strategy, this study employs the Endogenous Switching Regression (ESR) model to empirically assess the influence of export controls on corporate R&D investment. The findings reveal that U.S. export control measures have significantly driven Chinese firms to allocate more resources toward research and development. This effect, however, varies across firm characteristics. Specifically, non-state-owned enterprises, without overseas operations and those located in major metropolitan areas exhibit a stronger response in terms of increased R&D investment. Furthermore, market concentration negatively moderates the reverse forcing effect of export controls on R&D investment. Additionally, government subsidies are found to both increase the likelihood of firms being added to the Entity List and encourage greater R&D expenditure. This study contributes theoretical insights and empirical evidence to inform strategies for responding to external technological restrictions and enhancing indigenous innovation capabilities in critical sectors.

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李雪松,梅仲钦,李瑞敏.美国对华出口管制是否倒逼了中国企业增加研发投入:来自实体清单的证据[J].中国软科学,2025,(7):1-12

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-03
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