Abstract:This paper develops a theoretical framework to analyze the impact of U.S. export controls on China, particularly examining how such policies compel Chinese enterprises to increase their R&D investment. Drawing on data from A-share listed companies between 2014 and 2022, along with an optimized sample screening strategy, this study employs the Endogenous Switching Regression (ESR) model to empirically assess the influence of export controls on corporate R&D investment. The findings reveal that U.S. export control measures have significantly driven Chinese firms to allocate more resources toward research and development. This effect, however, varies across firm characteristics. Specifically, non-state-owned enterprises, without overseas operations and those located in major metropolitan areas exhibit a stronger response in terms of increased R&D investment. Furthermore, market concentration negatively moderates the reverse forcing effect of export controls on R&D investment. Additionally, government subsidies are found to both increase the likelihood of firms being added to the Entity List and encourage greater R&D expenditure. This study contributes theoretical insights and empirical evidence to inform strategies for responding to external technological restrictions and enhancing indigenous innovation capabilities in critical sectors.