透明度提升与地方债务可持续性:来自“双报告”模式下地方债务信息公开改革的经验证据
DOI:
CSTR:
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

F812.7

基金项目:

国家社会科学基金项目“地方政府隐性债务显性化的可持续性评估与优化路径研究”(22BJY079);教育部人文社会科学一般项目“风险与绩效双轮驱动下地方政府债务联动治理机制研究”(21YJC790045)。


Increased transparency and local debt sustainability:empirical evidence from the reform of local debt information disclosure under the “dual reporting” model
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    在运用全口径地级市层面的地方债务数据测度地方债务可持续性的基础上,以新《预算法》实施后的“双报告”模式地方债务信息公开改革为准自然实验,运用多期双重差分模型,实证分析改革所引致的透明度提升对地方债务可持续性的影响效应和机制。研究发现:第一,基于“双报告”的债务信息公开改革均对地方债务可持续性具有显著的正向影响;第二,从作用机制来看,基于决算报告的债务信息公开改革所引致的债务外部透明度提升,能作用于控制债务规模和降低举债融资成本两个渠道来增强地方债务可持续性,而基于政府综合财务报告的债务信息公开改革所引致的债务内部透明度提升,则能作用于控制债务规模和提高偿债能力两个途径来增强地方债务可持续性;第三,进一步分析发现,基于决算报告的债务信息公开改革更侧重于提高地方债务的使用绩效,而基于政府综合财务报告的债务信息公开改革则更偏向于提高地方债务的管理绩效。研究结论为通过加强地方债务信息公开和地方债务全口径监管、规范地方政府举债行为、实现地方债务可持续性发展提供有参考价值的建议。

    Abstract:

    This paper measures the sustainability of local debt using comprehensive data from prefecture-level cities. It treats the reform of local debt information disclosure under the “dual reporting” model following the implementation of the new Budget Law as a quasi-natural experiment, employing a multi-period difference-in-differences model to empirically analyze the impact and mechanisms of the enhanced transparency resulting from the reform on local debt sustainability. The study finds: First, the debt information disclosure reform based on the “dual reporting” model has a significant positive impact on local debt sustainability. Second, regarding mechanisms, the transparency improvement from the disclosure reform based on final accounts reports enhances sustainability through two channels: controlling debt scale and reducing borrowing costs. Meanwhile, the transparency enhancement from the reform based on the government comprehensive financial report strengthens sustainability by controlling debt scale and improving repayment capacity. Third, further analysis reveals that the reform of debt information disclosure based on final accounts reports focuses more on improving the utilization performance of local debt, while the reform based on comprehensive government financial reports leans towards enhancing the management performance of local debt. The conclusions of this study provide valuable recommendations for strengthening local debt information disclosure and comprehensive supervision, standardizing local government borrowing behaviors, and achieving sustainable development of local debt.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

洪源,万里,齐旺盛.透明度提升与地方债务可持续性:来自“双报告”模式下地方债务信息公开改革的经验证据[J].中国软科学,2025,(7):212-224

复制
分享
相关视频

文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-03
  • 出版日期:
文章二维码