未来产业与新质生产力发展:关联机理及互动路径
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F124.3

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山西省政府重大决策咨询课题“山西量子科技产业发展路径与对策研究”(ZB1105);中国科协创新战略研究院“我国科技创新制度设计与政策体系研究”。


Future industries and the development of new quality productivity: Correlation mechanism and interactive pathway
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    摘要:

    发展新质生产力是我国“十五五”时期乃至更长周期内面临的重大理论与实践问题,未来产业因其本身的特殊性在培育新质生产力过程中扮演着重要角色。本文在界定未来产业概念、特征的基础上,系统阐释未来产业与新质生产力之间的关联机理和互动路径。二者互为条件、彼此依存,新质生产力催生的新型生产关系和新型社会分工为未来产业提供根本动能,未来产业则是新质生产力的重要载体,通过前沿科技突破、新要素组合提升生产力的“质”,通过孕育新增长点和产业带动效应促进生产力“量”的扩张,其体系的不同层级也对新质生产力产生差异化影响。基于此,研究认为二者在创新驱动下形成了双向促进、协同演进的动态关系,呈现“突破—扩散”“融合—重构”“跃迁—范式转换”的演进路径,在制度保障、反馈调节、循环创新的支撑下螺旋上升。

    Abstract:

    Developing new quality productivity represents a major theoretical and practical challenge facing China during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period and beyond. Due to their distinctive characteristics, future industries play a crucial role in cultivating new quality productivity. After defining the concept and features of future industries, this paper systematically elucidates the correlation mechanisms and interactive pathways between future industries and new quality productivity. The two are mutually conditional and interdependent: the new production relations and new social division of labor generated by new quality productivity provide fundamental momentum for future industries, while future industries serve as important carriers of new quality productivity. They enhance the “quality” of productivity through frontier technological breakthroughs and new factor combinations, and promote the “quantitative” expansion of productivity through nurturing new growth points and industrial spillover effects. Different levels within their system also exert differentiated impacts on new quality productivity. Based on this analysis, this paper argues that under innovation-driven development, the two form a dynamic relationship of mutual promotion and co-evolution, manifesting evolutionary pathways of “breakthrough-diffusion”, “integration-reconstruction”, and “transition-paradigm shift”, spiraling upward under the safeguards of institutional support, feedback regulation, and cyclical innovation.

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彭鹏,刘海滨.未来产业与新质生产力发展:关联机理及互动路径[J].中国软科学,2025,(10):39-49

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-01
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