Based on the text analysis method of machine learning, this paper innovatively portrays the perceived level of technology supply disruption risk of Chinese listed firms, and empirically examines for the first time the impact of technology supply disruption risk on Chinese firms’ breakthrough innovations. It is found that technology supply disruption risk significantly promotes breakthrough innovation. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the breakthrough innovation effect induced by technology supply disruption risk is more pronounced among firms lacking government procurement, facing fiercer market competition, operating at smaller scales, and possessing greater technological accumulation and financial accessibility. The mechanism analysis suggests that under the deterrent effect of technological supply-cut risks, firms primarily promote breakthrough innovation by strengthening innovation collaboration, increasing R&D investment, and enhancing innovation efficiency. Further investigation reveals that patient capital can effectively amplify the breakthrough innovation effect induced by such risks.