数字中国10年建设的成效评价与“十五五”推进策略: 基于大语言模型复合赋权的测度分析
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F49

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国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“数字经济赋能经济高质量发展的机制与路径研究”(23JLB011)。


Ten Year construction achievements of Digital China and the advancement strategies for the 15th Five-Year Plan:A measurement analysis based on composite weighting by large language models
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    摘要:

    数字中国建设是构筑国家竞争新优势、推进中国式现代化的核心引擎。本文立足数字中国战略演进的历史逻辑,从认知空间重构、先进生产力跃升与中国式现代化主体性重塑的三重理论视域,系统回应了国家宏观战略在测度边界、内涵表征与价值指向上的学理追问。由此依照“2522”整体框架,构建涵盖“发展基础建设、深度赋能效能、技术与安全能力、治理开放环境”四位一体的成效评价体系,并引入多重大语言模型进行复合赋权与检验,对2014—2024年30个省份的数字中国建设成效进行测度与分析。研究发现:数字中国建设10年间成效显著,整体增长动能正步入结构性换挡期;省际鸿沟总体呈现收敛态势,但除传统东西部差距外,区域内部分化也阻碍了发展均衡;在空间演化上表现出集聚与“俱乐部收敛”,层级跃迁存在路径依赖与“马太效应”。面向“十五五”时期,本文提出跨越绝对鸿沟、打破空间锁定的五大推进路径:一是构筑自立自强与安全可控的数字技术创新体系,以数字中国建设赋能新质生产力发展;二是以“智算”基础设施建设为核心,构筑智能经济新形态的底层大动脉;三是构建数据要素高水平供给体系,畅通数据资源大循环以催生新质生产力;四是拓展数智化应用场景,加快打造智能经济新形态;五是构建协同发展的国内国际双循环格局,破解空间结构黏性。

    Abstract:

    Digital China has become a central driver of China’s effort to cultivate new national competitive advantages and advance Chinese modernization. Drawing on the historical evolution of the Digital China strategy, this paper examines the theoretical foundations of this national agenda from three perspectives: the reconstruction of cognitive space, the upgrading of advanced productive forces, and the rearticulation of the subjectivity of Chinese modernization. Following the “2522” strategic framework, we develop a four-dimensional evaluation system covering digital development foundations, deep digital empowerment, technological and security capacity, and the governance and openness environment. To enhance measurement reliability, we incorporate multiple large language models for composite weighting and validation, and assess the performance of Digital China development across 30 provincial-level regions from 2014 to 2024.The results yield three main findings. First, the overall performance of Digital China improved substantially over the sample period, although its growth momentum is now entering a stage of structural transition. Second, interprovincial disparities show a general trend toward convergence;however, beyond the conventional eastern-western divide, widening intra-regional differentiation remains an important constraint on balanced development. Third, the spatial evolution of Digital China exhibits both agglomeration and club convergence, while upward mobility across development tiers remains shaped by path dependence and Matthew effects.In response to these challenges, and with a view to the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan period, this paper proposes five policy priorities: strengthening a self-reliant and secure digital technology innovation system to foster new quality productive forces;prioritizing intelligent computing infrastructure as the foundational artery of the emerging intelligent economy;rebuilding a high-level data-factor supply system to improve data circulation and unlock productivity gains;expanding digital-intelligent application scenarios to accelerate the formation of a new intelligent economy;and promoting a coordinated dual-circulation framework linking domestic and international development to overcome spatial structural inertia.

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任保平,冯星源.数字中国10年建设的成效评价与“十五五”推进策略: 基于大语言模型复合赋权的测度分析[J].中国软科学,2026,(5):1-18

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-15
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