“厚尾”高温灾害造成了多少经济损失:基于DSGE模型的评估研究
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F822.1

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国家自然科学基金项目(72474127)。


How much economic loss is caused by the “fat-tailed” high-temperature disasters:An evaluation study based on the DSGE model
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    摘要:

    在气候变化背景下,高温等气象灾害日益频发,引发社会各界的高度关注。本文构建动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型量化气候风险的长期经济影响,评估具有“厚尾”特征的极端高温灾害导致的经济损失。通过耦合“碳排放模块、温度变化模块、经济损失模块、宏观经济模块”4个模块,将灾害发生概率内生于贴现率方程,并设计不同类型的损失函数,在多种情景下预测了2025—2200年的经济损失。主要结论:(1)“厚尾”高温的经济损失显著高于基准情景,非线性情景下2200年全球损失可达1 106万亿美元,较线性模型高10.8倍,并结合《巴黎协定》温控目标进行1.5 ℃、2 ℃、2.3 ℃三个升温阈值模拟,发现当温度上升超过2.3 ℃时,比例损失将大幅度上升;(2)灾害贴现率显著提升社会碳排放成本,2100年非线性增长的社会碳排放成本为1 091.8美元/吨,较传统模型高5.2%,揭示现行碳价机制存在严重低估;(3)温度不确定性与损失方差若提升10%,损失将分别增加30.1%和21.0%,验证了损失结果的不确定性。本文将“厚尾”风险与贴现率动态关联,提出了“风险溢价碳定价”的分析框架,丰富了气候变化经济学的研究内容。

    Abstract:

    Against the backdrop of climate change, meteorological disasters such as high temperatures have become increasingly frequent, attracting great attention from all sectors of society. This paper constructs a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to quantify the long-term economic impacts of climate risks and assess the economic losses caused by extreme high-temperature disasters with “fat-tailed” characteristics. By coupling four modules—“carbon emission module, temperature change module, economic loss module, and macroeconomic module”—the probability of disaster occurrence is endogenized into the discount rate equation, and different types of loss functions are designed to predict economic losses from 2025 to 2200 under various scenarios. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The economic losses from “fat-tailed” high temperatures are significantly higher than those in the benchmark scenario, under the nonlinear scenario, the global loss in 2 200 could reach 11.06 trillion US dollars, which is 10.8 times higher than that in the linear model. Based on the temperature control targets of the Paris Agreement, simulations are conducted for three warming thresholds: 1.5 ℃, 2 ℃, and 2.3 ℃, and it is found that when the temperature rise exceeds 2.3 ℃, the proportional loss will increase sharply;(2) The disaster discount rate significantly increases the social cost of carbon emissions, the socially nonlinear growth cost of carbon emissions in 2 100 is 1 091.8 US dollars per ton, which is 5.2% higher than that in the traditional model, revealing that the current carbon pricing mechanism is seriously underestimated;(3) If temperature uncertainty and loss variance increase by 10%, the losses will increase by 30.1% and 21.0% respectively, verifying the uncertainty of the loss results. This study dynamically links “fat-tailed” risks with the discount rate, proposes an analytical framework of “risk premium carbon pricing”, and enriches the research content of climate change economics.

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吴先华,曲尧,杨蕊.“厚尾”高温灾害造成了多少经济损失:基于DSGE模型的评估研究[J].中国软科学,2026,(5):42-56

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-15
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