Abstract:Disruptive technological breakthroughs and the cultivation of future industries are widely seen as essential drivers for advancing the quality and efficiency of new quality productive forces. However, scholarly understanding of how the intrinsic evolutionary dynamics of these innovations align or fail to align with dominant policy logics remains limited. This paper unpacks the core attributes of disruptive technologies and the formative mechanisms and developmental pathways of future industries, identifying five structural dimensions that shape their co-evolution: uncertainty, complexity, capability dependence, social embeddedness, and temporality. Building on this framework, we propose a policy adaptability lens to examine the implicit assumptions underlying current support strategies. The analysis reveals that existing policies largely assume technological trajectories can be anticipated in advance and that development goals can be achieved through fixed cycle planning an approach fundamentally mismatched with the emergent context sensitive and non-uniform nature of disruptive innovation and future industry formation. The findings suggest that improving policy effectiveness requires shifting focus from selecting promising technologies to cultivating institutional environments that enable innovation to emerge organically.