超越路径预判:颠覆性技术与未来产业的政策适配研究
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T-012

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国家自然科学基金面上项目“智能社会复杂性视角下公众认知形塑的政策设计、助推机制与优化路径研究”(72574121);中国科协青年人才托举工程项目(YESS20240806)。


Beyond path prediction: Toward policy adaptability for disruptive technologies and future industries
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    摘要:

    当前,颠覆性技术突破与未来产业培育被广泛视为提升新质生产力发展质效的重要依托,但其内在演化规律与现有政策逻辑之间的适配关系尚缺乏系统性理论阐释。本文通过解构颠覆性技术的内在属性与未来产业的形成动因、发展规律,提炼出二者耦合过程中的五个结构性维度:不确定性、复杂性、能力依赖性、社会嵌入性与时序性,并以此为基础构建一个政策适配性分析框架,考察当前支持体系所隐含的认知前提与预设。研究发现,现行政策实践普遍基于技术路径可被前置识别、发展目标可按固定周期推进的假设,而这一逻辑难以适配颠覆性技术与未来产业发展的涌现性、条件依赖性与非匀速演化特征。由此表明,为提升相关政策效果,需将着眼点从遴选潜力对象转向营造支撑创新涌现的环境。

    Abstract:

    Disruptive technological breakthroughs and the cultivation of future industries are widely seen as essential drivers for advancing the quality and efficiency of new quality productive forces. However, scholarly understanding of how the intrinsic evolutionary dynamics of these innovations align or fail to align with dominant policy logics remains limited. This paper unpacks the core attributes of disruptive technologies and the formative mechanisms and developmental pathways of future industries, identifying five structural dimensions that shape their co-evolution: uncertainty, complexity, capability dependence, social embeddedness, and temporality. Building on this framework, we propose a policy adaptability lens to examine the implicit assumptions underlying current support strategies. The analysis reveals that existing policies largely assume technological trajectories can be anticipated in advance and that development goals can be achieved through fixed cycle planning an approach fundamentally mismatched with the emergent context sensitive and non-uniform nature of disruptive innovation and future industry formation. The findings suggest that improving policy effectiveness requires shifting focus from selecting promising technologies to cultivating institutional environments that enable innovation to emerge organically.

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彭晓艺,魏钰明,苏竣.超越路径预判:颠覆性技术与未来产业的政策适配研究[J].中国软科学,2026,(6):59-70

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-02
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