非线性框架下的城市创新与房地产市场韧性:基于286城市的门槛效应检验
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F293.3

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国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“确定性投资——基于全球房地产市场的理论和经验研究”(23FJYB043)。


Urban innovation and real estate market resilience undera nonlinear framework: Evidence from threshold effect tests of 286 cities
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    摘要:

    随着中国房地产市场进入深度调整期,房地产市场稳定性与城市发展动能转换成为重要议题。本文基于2003—2016年中国286个城市面板数据,运用门槛效应模型,探析城市创新对房地产市场韧性(含投资韧性、销售韧性、价格韧性)的影响及作用机制。研究结果表明:(1)城市创新对房地产市场韧性具有显著正向影响,且存在非线性门槛特征,超过该门槛值后,提升效应显著增强,城市创新对房价韧性呈现显著单门槛效应,对投资韧性和销售韧性的影响存在异质性;(2)当城市创新指数低于0.043 9时,创新对房价韧性的提升作用有限,当创新指数高于0.043 9时,价格韧性弹性由1.09跃升至1.83,表明创新对城市房地产价格稳定性的托底作用凸显;(3)房地产金融化程度加深会弱化创新的风险对冲功能,但并未改变其门槛效应方向。异质性分析发现,2008年后城市创新对房地产市场韧性的正向效应更突出,表明快速金融化阶段创新对市场稳定性的支撑作用更为关键。此外,劳动力规模、第三产业占比等经济因素对房地产市场韧性的影响随创新水平提升呈现差异化特征,而建成区绿化率始终表现出正向影响。本文认为,调房价和引导城市创新并非不可调和的悖论,达到一定阶段后,城市创新水平提高反而可以反向增强房地产市场韧性,推动城市向房地产—创新包容驱动转型。研究结果可为政府制定“创新驱动房地产市场稳韧性”政策、实现城市高质量发展提供理论依据与实证支持。

    Abstract:

    As China’s real estate market enters a period of in-depth adjustment, the stability of the real estate market and the transformation of urban development momentum have become important issues. Based on a nonlinear framework, this paper uses panel data of 286 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2016 and employs a threshold effect model to explore the impact of urban innovation on real estate market resilience (including investment resilience, sales resilience, and price resilience) and its mechanism of action. The results show that urban innovation has a significant positive impact on real estate market resilience, with a non-linear threshold characteristic: when the urban innovation index is below 0.043 9, the role of innovation in improving housing price resilience is limited; after exceeding this threshold, the promotion effect is significantly enhanced. Heterogeneity analysis finds that the positive effect of urban innovation on real estate market resilience has been more prominent since 2008, and in cities with a relatively high degree of real estate financialization, the supporting role of innovation in market stability is more crucial. In addition, the impact of economic factors such as labor scale and the proportion of the tertiary industry on real estate market resilience shows differentiated characteristics with the improvement of innovation level, while the greening rate of built-up areas always shows a positive impact. This paper can provide a theoretical basis and empirical support for the government to formulate policies of “innovation-driven real estate market resilience” and realize high-quality urban development.

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李嘉,曲峻熙.非线性框架下的城市创新与房地产市场韧性:基于286城市的门槛效应检验[J].中国软科学,2026,(6):83-96

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-02
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