区域协调发展视角下的产业转移政策与资本响应:来自省际双边城投债投资的证据
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F120.4

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国家自然科学基金项目(72403245);清华大学自主科研计划项目(2025THZWYY07)。


Industrial relocation policy and capital responses under coordinated regional development:Evidence from inter-provincial LGFV bond investment
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    摘要:

    跨区域产业转移是构建优势互补、高质量发展区域经济布局的关键举措,对于促进区域协调发展、实现共同富裕具有重要意义。现有研究多聚焦于产业转移对承接地经济增长、技术溢出或环境影响的单方面考察,却普遍忽视了其作为一个系统性政策如何重塑转出地与承接地之间的资本要素配置格局。本文基于区域发展理论,研究产业转移如何通过重构区域产业链分工、改善基础设施和营商环境,引导金融资本随产业跨区域重新配置。基于2014—2022年省际城投债持仓数据,本文在引力模型框架下构建多时点双边配对双重差分模型,识别跨区域产业转移对资本要素流动是否具有显著的促进效应。结果显示,产业从转出地向承接地转移后,转出地金融机构对承接地城投债投资平均增加约21%,并在多种稳健性检验下依然成立。机制分析表明,产业转移主要通过推动市场化进程促进资本流动,提升承接地投资吸引力。本文从资本要素视角,揭示了跨区域产业转移政策深层的金融与经济联动机制,为理解区域协调发展提供了新的理论证据与政策启示。

    Abstract:

    Cross-regional industrial relocation is a key instrument for building a regionally coordinated, high-quality pattern of economic development and advancing common prosperity. Existing studies have mainly focused on the unilateral effects of industrial relocation on economic growth, technological spillovers, or environmental outcomes in recipient regions, while generally overlooking how, as a systematic policy, it reshapes the allocation of capital factors between origin and destination regions. Drawing on theories of regional development, this paper examines how industrial relocation guides the cross-regional reallocation of financial capital alongside industry by restructuring the regional division of labor within industrial chains and improving infrastructure and the business environment. Using 2014—2022 data on inter-provincial holdings of local government financing vehicle (LGFV) bonds, we embed a multi-period bilateral-pair difference-in-differences design within a gravity-model framework to identify whether cross-regional industrial relocation significantly promotes capital flows across regions. The results show that, after industries move from origin to recipient regions, financial institutions located in origin regions increase their holdings of LGFV bonds issued by recipient regions by around 21% on average, and this effect remains robust across a variety of robustness checks. Mechanism analysis indicates that industrial relocation mainly promotes capital flows by advancing market-oriented development, thereby enhancing the investment attractiveness of recipient regions. From the perspective of capital, this paper uncovers the deeper financial-real economy linkages embedded in cross-regional industrial relocation policies, providing new theoretical evidence and policy insights for understanding regionally coordinated development under government guidance and market forces.

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吴茂祯,刘天寒,张鹏龙,胡羽珊.区域协调发展视角下的产业转移政策与资本响应:来自省际双边城投债投资的证据[J].中国软科学,2026,(7):110-121

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-20
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