全球价值链风险暴露的多维分析:兼论中国产业链自主可控
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F740

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国家社会科学基金重大项目“统筹推进碳达峰碳中和与扩大内需战略研究”(24VRC030);中国工程院项目“我国生态环境领域科技体制机制战略研究”(2025-JZ-22);中国社会科学院大学研创计划科学研究项目(2026-KY-181)。


Multidimensional analysis of global value chain risk exposure: Implications for China’s industrial chain security and controllability
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    摘要:

    在全球价值链深度重构与外部冲击显著加剧的背景下,提升产业链自主可控水平对于统筹高水平对外开放和经济安全具有重要意义。本文基于投入产出分析框架,构建涵盖中间品、总产出、增加值多视角的全球价值链风险暴露测度体系,并从出口侧与进口侧系统刻画了各国产业风险暴露的结构特征及其演变趋势,以识别产业链自主可控面临的外部约束。研究发现:第一,不同国家在全球价值链中的风险暴露具有显著的视角差异和结构异质性,其中中间品视角主要反映关键投入保障能力,而总产出视角主要反映生产网络中的风险传导与放大效应,增加值视角则更能刻画价值创造和价值实现环节的对外依赖程度;第二,从国家结构看,中国、美国和德国在全球生产网络中处于关键节点位置,并分别在亚洲、北美和欧洲区域价值链中发挥重要支撑作用;第三,从行业层面看,中国出口侧风险主要集中于技术与设备密集型制造业及相关生产性服务业,而进口侧风险则主要来源于能源、基础原材料及关键中间品部门,呈现出“上游资源依赖、下游制造嵌入”的结构特征。本文从多视角系统揭示了全球价值链风险暴露的多维来源及其结构特征,为识别产业链关键依赖环节、提升中国产业链自主可控水平提供了经验证据。

    Abstract:

    Amid the profound restructuring of global value chains and the intensification of external shocks, enhancing the autonomy and controllability of industrial chains is of great significance for coordinating high-level opening-up and economic security. Based on the input-output analytical framework, this paper constructs a measurement system of global value chain risk exposure from the perspectives of intermediate goods, gross output, and value added. It systematically characterizes the structural features and evolutionary trends of industrial risk exposure across countries from both export and import perspectives,with the aim of identifying the external constraints facing industrial chain resilience and self-reliance. The findings are as follows. First, risk exposure in global value chains exhibits significant perspective-dependent differences and structural heterogeneity across countries. Specifically, the intermediate-goods perspective primarily reflects the security and stability of access to critical inputs, the gross-output perspective captures the transmission and amplification of risks through production networks, while the value-added perspective better characterizes external dependence in value creation and value realization processes. Second, from a cross-country structural perspective, China, the United States, and Germany occupy key positions in the global production network, playing important supporting roles in regional value chains in Asia, North America, and Europe, respectively. Third, at the sectoral level, China’s export-side risks are mainly concentrated in technology- and equipment-intensive manufacturing industries as well as related producer services, whereas import-side risks primarily stem from energy, basic raw materials, and critical intermediate goods sectors, exhibiting a structural pattern of “upstream resource dependence and downstream manufacturing embedding.” By providing a multidimensional analysis, this paper systematically reveals the sources and structural characteristics of global value chain risk exposure, offering empirical evidence for identifying critical dependency links and enhancing the autonomy and controllability of China’s industrial chain.

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蒋金荷,王浩,贾琦.全球价值链风险暴露的多维分析:兼论中国产业链自主可控[J].中国软科学,2026,(9):1-15

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-23
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