Achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality is a strategic choice for China to promote high-quality development. As the primary source of carbon emissions and the core carrier of economic activities, the green and low-carbon transformation of cities is crucial for realizing the “dual carbon” goals. Based on the Wuli-Shili-Renli theoretical framework, this study integrates six antecedent conditions, energy consumption structure, natural environmental resources, government environmental regulation, government environmental support, environmental governance will, and public environmental participation, and employs fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis to systematically explore the multiple concurrent causal mechanisms affecting urban green and low-carbon development. The findings reveal that: (1) No single factor constitutes a necessary condition for high urban green and low-carbon development, but government environmental regulation and public environmental participation demonstrate strong universal effects in promoting green and low-carbon development; (2) There exist three differentiated paths to achieve high green and low-carbon development: “policy-led type,”“ecology-empowered type,” and “governance-participation type”; (3) The paths leading to non-high urban green and low-carbon development also exhibit diversity and present causal asymmetric relationships with the paths of high green and low-carbon development. The research conclusions provide theoretical guidance and practical implications for different types of cities to select appropriate green and low-carbon development paths.