基于统计粗集模型的航空发动机维修成本组合预测方法
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F407.5

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Combination Model Based on Statistical- Rough Sets Theory and Its Application in Aero - Engine Maintenance Costs
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    摘要:

    维修成本是航空公司为实现降耗增效关注的重点之一。本文运用统计粗集理论属性重要性判定方法,建立了发动机维修成本组合预测模型,这种方法充分利用了粗集理论"让数据说话"的优势。实例证明,建立的组合模型较之单一预测模型在拟合和预测精度上都有明显提高,这种方法也为航空公司合理制定维修计划和管理维修资金奠定了基础。

    Abstract:

    Airlines pay close attention to maintenance cost for efficiency improvement and fuel consumption reduction. Due to the limitation and shortcoming of forecasting model using single mathematic method, a new idea of performing combination model instead of selecting model methods is proposed. The key point of a combination model is to determine the weight coefficients. In this paper, based on the rough sets theory, we employ the uniformity of rough sets and statistical methods to find out the significance of each attribute by its knowledge entropy. Then the weight coefficients can be calculated by determining the significant degree of each one. According to the experimental results, our proposed new model can obviously improve the prediction accuracy than the single model. This combination model has been partly adopted by airlines, which proved helpful in reducing the airlines costs.

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梁剑 左洪福 常继百 赵红华 周左成.基于统计粗集模型的航空发动机维修成本组合预测方法[J].中国软科学,2004,(4):138-141

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  • 最后修改日期:2003-10-03
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