社会突发事件应急模型及控制模式的构建分析
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N945.25

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Response Model and Control Pattern of the Social Emergency
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    摘要:

    社会突发事件的应急控制过程中,如何在对事件特定的原因、性质、时空特征、扩散态势进行快速综合分析的基础上,采用科学合理、及时有效的应急控制模式对应急方案措施进行实时控制,是最大限度地减少事件损失和应急控制成本的前提条件,也是社会应急预警研究亟需解决的关键性问题。论文尝试性地将社会突发事件的发生-扩散-消退-平息过程类比于一个相对稳定的物体在分别受到推力和阻力的作用下发生的运动-加速-减速-停止过程,结合社会突发事件发生的社会、自然及经济等不同影响因子,分别对社会突发事件扩散及其应急控制的应急模型进行构建。并在构建突发事件应急控制四种模式的基础上,对其不同的应急控制过程进行定量化的理论阐述和对比分析。

    Abstract:

    While a social emergency breaks out,a reasonable,efficient and timely response and control pattern to be quickly selected is important to decrease the emergency loss and to reduce the cost of control emergency.Consequently, how through analyzing quickly and synthetically the factors of the emergency occurring,which include the emergency cause,property,and time-space attribute,is focus issue of the social response and alert research.On the basis of New- ton's second law,this paper makes an analogy between the processes of social emergency happening,spreading,dieing out and appeasing and the processes of a normal object moving,accelerating,decelerating and stopping under the condi- tions that the object is affected different thrust and resistance powers.After these analyses,through integrating all kinds of social,natural and economic factors leading to social emergency occurring,this paper not only develops the social emer- gency spread and response models,respectively,but also designs the response patterns which include delayed control pat- tern,synchronous control pattern,beforehand control pattern and collapse control pattern.Further more,different emer- gency loss and response cost with different control pattern in the response process on a same emergency is discussed.

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范泽孟,牛文元,顾基发.社会突发事件应急模型及控制模式的构建分析[J].中国软科学,2007,(8):85-92

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  • 最后修改日期:2006-10-24
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