人工智能驱动研发创新的动态效应研究:基于全球碳纳米管专利数据
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G301;G306

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教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目“大模型驱动新材料研发创新:技术逻辑、生态重构与治理规则”(24YJCZH339)


Dynamic effects of artificial intelligence on R&D and innovation: Based on global carbon nanotube patent data
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    摘要:

    随着AI for Science(AI4S)成为全球科技竞争的新前沿,厘清人工智能(AI)如何重塑研发创新范式的微观机制已成为关键议题。揭示AI驱动研发创新的动态效应与复杂机制,构建“技术—任务—能力”(TechnologyTaskAbility, TTA)分析框架,论证人工智能通过重组而非简单加速研发任务来深刻重塑研发创新生态。基于全球碳纳米管领域专利数据,综合运用技术共现网络分析、时变参数向量自回归模型、脉冲响应分析和小波相干分析等方法,实证考察AI融入前后技术网络的动态演化。研究发现:第一,AI的融入显著提升了技术网络的整体关联程度,且AI自身成为关键的技术溢出源并扮演创新网络中“引领者”的角色;第二,AI通过自动化材料表征等任务,导致材料测试与分析等传统分析技术在网络中的角色从“引领者”转变为“跟随者”,为TTA框架提出的任务重组机制提供了直接实证证据;第三,脉冲响应和小波相干分析进一步证实,AI对碳纳米管技术发展存在显著且动态的正向驱动效应。此外,通过分析人工智能与新材料研发创新的互动逻辑,提出针对研发创新生态的“分层治理”和“分段治理”原则。

    Abstract:

    As AI for Science (AI4S) emerges as a new frontier in global technological competition, clarifying the micromechanisms of how Artificial Intelligence (AI) reshapes the R&D innovation paradigm has become a critical issue This paper aims to reveal the dynamic effects and complex mechanisms of AIdriven R&D innovation This study constructs a “TechnologyTaskAbility” (TTA) analytical framework to argue that AI profoundly reshapes the R&D innovation ecosystem by reorganizing, rather than simply accelerating, R&D tasks Based on patent data from the global carbon nanotube field, this paper employs a combination of methods, including technology cooccurrence network analysis, the timevarying parameter vector autoregression model, impulse response analysis, and wavelet coherence analysis, to empirically examine the dynamic evolution of the technology network before and after the integration of AI The findings indicate that: first, the integration of AI significantly enhances the overall connectivity of the technology network, with AI itself becoming a key technology spillover source and playing the role of a “leader” in the innovation network Second, by automating tasks such as materials characterization, AI causes traditional analytical technologies, such as materials testing and analysis, to shift from a “leader” to a “follower” role within the network, providing direct empirical evidence for the task reorganization mechanism proposed by the TTA framework Third, impulse response and wavelet coherence analyses further confirm that AI has a significant and dynamic positive driving effect on the development of carbon nanotube technology Furthermore, by analyzing the interactive logic between AI and new materials R&D innovation, the paper proposes principles of “stratified governance” and “segmented governance” for the R&D innovation ecosystem

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吴过,周洪.人工智能驱动研发创新的动态效应研究:基于全球碳纳米管专利数据[J].中国软科学,2026,(2):50-61

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-29
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