三支柱养老金替代率的水平测度与政策模拟优化
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F840.61

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国家社会科学基金重点项目“‘兜底性’失能老年人养老服务体系建设研究”(20AZD082)


Study on the replacement rate of the threepillar pension insurance for employees
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    摘要:

    随着个人养老金项目的推行,我国正式建立起了三支柱养老保险体系。为评估现行养老保险体系的保障能力,本文构建了三支柱养老金的替代率模型,基于CFPS 2022数据展开测算和模拟分析。研究发现:我国养老金体系的保障效果存在显著分层,部分群体仍有保障缺口。三支柱养老金体系呈现明显结构性失衡:第一支柱承载了绝大部分的保障职能,第二、三支柱的补充效果相对薄弱。养老金替代率受缴费年限、退休年龄等制度参数的显著影响,个人养老金制度的实施虽有助于提升整体替代率,但作用较为有限。建议适时调整法定退休年龄,系统优化缴费年限机制,积极推动企业年金与个人养老金发展,加强不同支柱之间的制度协同,从而提升养老保险体系的整体保障效能。

    Abstract:

    With the rollout of the personal pension scheme, China has formally established a threepillar pension system To evaluate its adequacy, this study develops a replacementrate model covering all three pillars and conducts simulations based on CFPS 2022 data The results reveal pronounced stratification in benefit adequacy, with persistent coverage gaps for certain groups The system exhibits structural imbalance: the first pillar bears most of the responsibility, while the second and third pillars provide limited supplementary support Replacement rates are highly sensitive to institutional parameters such as contribution years and retirement age Although the personal pension scheme marginally improves overall replacement rates, its impact remains modest Policy recommendations include gradually adjusting the statutory retirement age, optimizing contributionyear requirements, promoting the development of enterprise annuities and personal pensions, and strengthening coordination across pillars to enhance overall system sustainability and adequacy

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戴卫东,朱璇格.三支柱养老金替代率的水平测度与政策模拟优化[J].中国软科学,2026,(2):71-83

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-29
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