我国国内大循环的测度、解构及内生动力研究——基于构建全国统一大市场的视角
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作者单位:

1.沈阳农业大学 经济管理学院;2.中共辽宁省委党校

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基金项目:

以人为核心的新型城镇化下提高农业转移人口市民化质量研究


The Measurement, Deconstruction and Endogenous Power of Chinese Domestic Economic Circulation———A Perspective from the Construction of a Unified National Market
Author:
Affiliation:

1.School of Economics and Management, Shenyang Agricultural University;2.Party School of Liaoning provincial Party committee

Fund Project:

Study on improving the quality of urbanization of agricultural transfer population under the new urbanization with people as the core

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    摘要:

    党的二十大报告指出要增强国内大循环内生动力和可靠性,准确测度、分解并动态描述我国国内大循环及区域间和产业间循环的水平、结构及时空演变趋势,找到畅通国内大循环发展的内生动力有重要意义。本文基于31个省份42个产业部门之间的投入产出表面板数据,运用价值链循环分解方法对中国国内大循环水平进行测度,并进一步通过Kernel核密度估计等对测度结果进行实证分析,揭示我国区域间和产业间循环现状及趋势,并从构建国内统一大市场的视角揭示国内大循环的内生动力。研究发现:中国各产业增加值主要依赖于国内循环,国内区域间循环占比远高于国内产业间循环占比,省外循环水平也略高于省内循环。国内大循环存在一定的空间相关性和地域差异,水平较高的省份主要分布在沿海沿江经济带。我国国内大循环发展整体上呈下降趋势,国内大循环在各区域(省份)的差异逐渐增加。构建全国统一大市场可有效抑制各省份的国内循环水平差异,提升整体的国内大循环水平,作用路径体现在通过消除生产、分配、流通和消费四个环节的堵点提升区域间循环水平。本研究有利于从定量的角度深入理解国内大循环的现状与趋势,对于构建国内统一大市场、畅通国内大循环有一定的启示意义。

    Abstract:

    To reveal the development mechanism and current situation of the domestic big cycle, and to conduct research on the construction of the new development pattern and the unimpeded domestic big cycle. Research Methods: Based on the input-output model, the value chain cycle decomposition method is used to measure the level of China"s domestic economic circulation, and the measurement results are -further empirically analyzed by Kernel Kernel density estimation, Thiel index, and improved deviation share method, so as to reveal the current situation and trend of inter-regional and inter-industry circulation in China. Research Findings: The added value of various industries in China mainly depends on domestic circulation. The proportion of domestic inter regional circulation is much higher than that of domestic inter industry circulation. The level of circulation outside the province is also slightly higher than that inside the province. There is a certain spatial correlation and regional difference in the domestic big cycle. The provinces with higher level are mainly distributed in the coastal and riverside economic belts. The development of China"s domestic big cycle shows a downward trend on the whole, and the results of the Theil index show that the difference of the domestic big cycle in various regions (provinces) is gradually increasing. Building a unified national market can effectively curb the difference in the domestic circulation level of each province and improve the overall domestic circulation level. The role path is to improve the regional circulation level by eliminating the blockages in the four links of production, distribution, circulation and consumption. Research innovations: Based on China"s provincial input-output table, this paper comprehensively measures and analyzes the level of domestic circulation, and further divides it into inter-regional circulation and inter-industry circulation, and explores the spatio-temporal evolution trend, regional differences and structural differences of domestic circulation. Research value: It is helpful to understand the current situation and trend of the domestic great circulation from a quantitative perspective, and it is of great significance to smooth the domestic great circulation and build a new development pattern.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-11-21
  • 最后修改日期:2023-11-21
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